STRATFOR: Geopolitical Diary: Thursday, March 18, 2004

A car bomb went off in Baghdad today, leveling a local hotel and killing Iraqi and foreign Arabs. The Hotel Mount Lebanon is located in a predominantly Shiite neighborhood. If we assume that the detonation was not an accident, then it appears to be a continuation of the jihadist strategy of hammering the Shiite community in the hopes of eliciting a response from them. That would force the Sunnis to defend themselves, re-energizing the guerrilla movement -- or so the jihadist theory goes. An interesting question is whether there was any link between this attack, the failed bombing in Karachi and the Madrid attack on March 11. The question of the level of global coordination within the al Qaeda network remains unanswered. These could well have been uncoordinated -- or coordinated -- attacks.

The condition of still not knowing enough about al Qaeda was compounded today by a fascinating announcement by the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, the group that has claimed responsibility for the Madrid bombings. Who this group is and whether it has an authoritative link to al Qaeda became priority issues with today's announcement. According to a message delivered to al-Hayat, an Arabic language newspaper in London, the group has offered to halt any further operations in Europe while it waits to see if the Spanish government carries out its withdrawal from Iraq. It implied that the cease-fire could become permanent.

If this were a feeler from al Qaeda, it would be an extraordinarily important moment in the war. Thus far, al Qaeda has waged the war with no quarter asked and none given. It has been inflexible and invisible. There has been no one to negotiate with, even if anyone had wanted to negotiate. Now there is an offer on the table, and a clever one at that. If the offer is genuine -- a huge "if" in many ways -- al Qaeda is offering all of Europe the chance to opt out of the war -- to cease being a target. It is a very tempting offer to many European countries that don't like U.S. policy in Iraq and certainly don't want a Madrid to happen to them.

At a time when al Qaeda is on the defensive in Pakistan and has lost substantial assets elsewhere, this is a smart move. First -- and most important -- it creates a strain between Europe and the United States. Second, it creates a situation in which other European countries, not wanting to be attacked, pressure Spain to withdraw. Third, if Spain simply does what it said it would do, al Qaeda can proclaim that its attack has protected Europe from al Qaeda, so that when follow-on attacks don't happen, it can be ascribed to al Qaeda's generosity. Al Qaeda takes one bombing in Madrid and turns it into a peace offensive that doesn't require anything to validate it -- except that Spain does what it said it would do.

The offer does something else. For the first time, al Qaeda is offering to limit its actions in return for political concessions. What has been wild about al Qaeda is that it never asked for anything specific. There never was anything to discuss. Now al Qaeda has made an offer: Spanish withdrawal from Iraq for security in Europe. Many details are unclear, but for the first time there is an opening to negotiation.

Given al Qaeda's position, this offer makes perfect sense. During World War II, when the Germans had nearly lost the war, they launched a final offensive in the west, hoping to achieve sufficient success to allow a negotiated peace with the British and the Americans. Al Qaeda -- with its back against the wall -- bombs a Madrid railroad station, and then tries to use its success to begin a negotiating process.

The problem with this theory is that no one can decide if this group is for real, if it was really responsible for the Madrid bombing or whether it speaks for anyone but itself. If al Qaeda is a bunch of flakes, they are gifted flakes, inasmuch as al Qaeda has done waht it should do in this situation -- if the world were ruled by our logic. But the fact is that we can't be sure that the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades group is for real -- and that is the heart of the U.S. problem and the thing that makes Europe so vulnerable to these attacks. The uncertainty about the nature of the enemy is the most uncomfortable thing about the entire war.

If there is anything that is certain and known about al Qaeda and the other jihadist groups, it is that they will never stop attacks or guarantee security on a permanent basis. There will always be a headscarf ban or a deposed tyrant to threaten revenge for, and never forget that the ultimate goal is the rebirth of the Islamic Khalifah and the reclaiming of all lands that were ever considered Muslim. There is the evangelizing by the sword of all 'infidels', even though Mohammed himself said "Let there be no compulsion in religion." They are not even following Mohammed any more, they are ghouls gone wild.

Al Qaeda takes one bombing in Madrid and turns it into a peace offensive that doesn't require anything to validate it -- except that Spain does what it said it would do.

One problem with this theory is that it takes off the table a whole Western continent's worth of useful terrorist targets with capitulating politicians.

Is staying out of Iraq the only demand AQ would have for Europe? Of course not, when they have shown willingness to concede, the price of peace will certainly rise.

Attacks from other (non-AQ) terrorist groups are probably also more likely now since it's known Europe is to be had.

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