Posted on 03/17/2004 8:40:13 PM PST by Axion
Summary
Iranian President Mohammed Khatami admitted defeat in his two-term goal to weaken the grip of the country's conservative Islamic clerics. Khatami bluntly advised the populace not to expect much from the presidency in the future, and declared his legislative efforts to reform the country's political system dead. With the conservatives clearly victorious, Tehran can now speak and negotiate with a single voice. That strengthens Tehran's hand in dealing with the United States and quickens the pace of the ongoing U.S.-Iranian rapprochement.
Analysis
Speaking to reporters after a March 17 Cabinet meeting, Iranian President Mohammed Khatami declared his efforts to reform the Iranian political system -- and weaken the grip of the country's conservative clerics -- dead.
Khatami's labors had focused on a pair of bills that would have prevented the Guardians Council -- the legal bastion of the conservatives -- from vetting candidate lists in Iran's elections, and would have expanded the president's powers to the detriment of the unelected Guardians Council. Khatami withdrew both bills.
"I have met with defeat. Let the people know who is their president and what powers he has so that they keep their expectations accordingly," Khatami said. "The council even breached its own definite view that the president is responsible for implementing the constitution. People should know that in the view of some [the Guardians Council], the president is not Iran's number one official after the supreme leader. The council views the president merely as a coordinator among other institutions."
The president's statement is more than a total surrender to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's absolute spiritual leader -- who appoints the Guardians Council. In telling Iranians to expect little of him and tacitly accepting the Guardians Council's view of his office, Khatami is, in effect, declaring the reformist movement dead.
This marks the end of a long-running battle for influence between Khatami and the Guardians Council that began when Khatami was first elected president seven years ago. In Iran's February elections the Guardians Council's vetting of the candidate lists -- and eliminating reform-minded candidates -- ensured that the conservatives would control the Majlis, the Iranian parliament.
Those battles injected considerable instability into Iran's political dynamic, leading to frequent protests as pro-reform elements clashed with the security services, which are controlled by the conservatives. Charges of international meddling in the country's internal affairs have also been made regularly.
The chaos has often made for confusion in Iran's international relations, as various factions have made -- and refuted -- statements to meet the needs of their own internal politicking.
The conservatives have won. The days of confusion are over.
This development will have two immediate effects on Iran's foreign policy. First, the country will now speak with a single voice in all of its international dealings. This will dramatically strengthen Tehran's hand in dealing with the evolution of Iraq, the weakening of Saudi Arabia, relations with Europe and, in particular, the ongoing rapprochement with the United States.
Second -- and just as important -- the tempo of all these changes will pick up dramatically. There is no longer a need for Tehran to secure internal coherence before acting internationally. Despite the fact that it will be the conservatives dominating the process, Stratfor expects this to accelerate the ongoing U.S.-Iranian rapprochement. Tehran's hesitancy until now was in part because Khamenei and his allies feared provoking a split among the country's conservatives that the reformists could exploit. With that fear now past, Iran can speak boldly with one voice -- even when that voice will soon be declaring all-too-normal relations are being forged with the Great Satan.
I agree. Might hurry the revolution though. Khatami should have called it quits before the election, to save some respectability.
On the bright side I don't think we'll be having many more lamestream media pretend Khatami is the "leader" of Iran and that his peaceful statements represent the Iranian government.
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