Time to Save an Alliance

The Washington Post ^ | March 16, 2004 | Robert Kagan

[neverdem]

The terrorist attack in Madrid and its seismic impact on the Spanish elections this past week have brought the United States and Europe to the edge of the abyss. There's no denying that al Qaeda has struck a strategic and not merely a tactical blow. To murder and terrorize people is one thing, but to unseat a pro-U.S. government in a nation that was a linchpin of America's alliance with the so-called New Europe -- that is al Qaeda's most significant geopolitical success since Sept. 11, 2001.

The unhappy reality is that a significant number of Spanish voters seem to have responded to the attacks in Madrid exactly as al Qaeda hoped they would. They believed their government's close cooperation with the United States, and specifically with the Bush administration in Iraq, had brought the wrath of the terrorist organization on them, and that the way to avoid future attacks was to choose a government that would withdraw from Iraq and distance itself from the United States. Other European peoples and governments have quietly flirted with this kind of thinking in the past, and not just recently but throughout the 1990s. But Spaniards have now made this calculus public. If other European publics decide that the Spaniards are right, and conclude that the safer course in world affairs is to dissociate themselves from the United States, then the transatlantic partnership is no more.

[rocksblues]

"If other European publics decide that the Spaniards are right, and conclude that the safer course in world affairs is to dissociate themselves from the United States, then the transatlantic partnership is no more."

They already have! The socialists are in charge or will be.

When they are attacked they capitulate!!!!

We should cut off all foreign aid, pull our troops from Germany, and let these appeasement scum feel the real "Religion of Peace".

[Servant of the 9]

The Spanish people have performed the most shameful political act since Neville Chamberlin returned from Munich with 'Peace in our Time'

They are no longer our friends. They have chosen Islamo-Fascism over us, and will have to live with their choice, or die with it until they reach the top of our schedule. After that, they will do as they are told.

So9

[BikePacker]

In a mere 30 years, Europe will BE Islamic.

[nathanbedford]

No one should dismiss Kagan's injunctions cavalierly when he says the Atlantic alliance is on the verge of shattering and that Bush (and Kerry) must act now to restore it.

But it not time to panic. There will be an inevitable reaction to this blatant appeasement from the sober remnants of Europe. The socialist leaders will recognize that they are in danger of overplaying their hands. They will mask this situation with talk of cooperation in the general war against terrorism but not in Iraq.

Bush should do what he does so well: Maintain a public image of self possesion and indifference to slight and bide his time. He should wait events. Inevitably, the islamists will over reach and the pendulum will swing our way. Bush will succeed in Irak and elsewhere. He will capture Usama. Other attacks will occur. Think like Pitt or Churchill in '40 and act decisively when the hour comes.

[nathanbedford]

No one should dismiss Kagan's injunctions cavalierly when he says the Atlantic alliance is on the verge of shattering and that Bush (and Kerry) must act now to restore it.

But it not time to panic. There will be an inevitable reaction to this blatant appeasement from the sober remnants of Europe. The socialist leaders will recognize that they are in danger of overplaying their hands. They will mask this situation with talk of cooperation in the general war against terrorism but not in Iraq.

Bush should do what he does so well: Maintain a public image of self possesion and indifference to slight and bide his time. He should wait events. Inevitably, the islamists will over reach and the pendulum will swing our way. Bush will succeed in Irak and elsewhere. He will capture Usama. Other attacks will occur. Think like Pitt or Churchill in '40 and act decisively when the hour comes.

[expatpat]

The Spaniards, like Italians, have a strong taste for revenge. They may well turn out to be more committed to fight against AQ et al than they were before the bombing.

[Milligan]

"Those who would give up esstential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." Ben Franklin, 1759....

I need to find a Spanish quote somewhere....

[DentsRun]

I've seen a lot of posts essentially saying the Spanish people are cowards. They gave in to terror. But they don't see it that way. Ninety percent of them opposed their goverment's support of the US war on Iraq. But their government sent in troops anyway. What Spanish voters are saying is, "Anytime a government ignores the will of the people, the people have the right to change that government, especially when the government's actions lead to tragedy and death."

Even when a government is convinced that it is right and the people are wrong, it has an obligation to first lead the people to the right conclusion before taking action that the whole country opposes. That's how revolutions start.

[vanmorrison]

I'm sorry, but I can't buy this kind of thinking any more. The Spaniards are craven, that's all there is to it. They've shown their true selves loud and clear. And revenge against the perpetrators of the bombings is not part of their make up any longer. These are the hard to accept, but undisputable, facts.

[JasonC]

"He is the uncandid candid friend, who says 'I am sorry to say we are ruined', when he is not sorry at all" - GK Chesterton

Is the loss of a responsible government in Spain a defeat for the Atlantic alliance? Yes, certainly. An internal one. The socialist left in Europe, along with the entire political spectrum in France, has no interest is keeping that alliance unless they run it. And concretely, that it appeases rather than fights Islamic terrorism.

This is an attempt to spread the victory, to widen it out. It is another surrender call - the EU left's only language. We will surrender to AQ unless you surrender to us - which is just a roundabout way of surrendering to AQ. Let them. Those who want nothing to do with the WOT should be politely told to shut up and go away. But that their counsels over what any of the rest of us do, are not wanted. No help, no voice. The direction of the basic policy is not open to discussion. If you don't agree with it, you disagree yourselves out of the alliance - and incidentally out of our protection. And earshot.

They don't want to sulk away to be left alone because that condemns them in their own eyes as moral cowards. They want to stop anyone else from standing up to the terrorists, too. Nobody is to make them mad. Nobody is to put on airs of being better than their own cravenness. Nobody is to preach at them, or make them feel inadequate for being terrified. Those will be their terms.

And setting as a goal, keeping "intact" an "alliance" with people bent on acting that way, simply means capitulating to them. They are not half as important as they pretend, precisely because they have demonstrated a complete lack of courage. If they are scared witless by 10 amateur bombs, does anybody on earth still think they would e.g. face the Russians? So what good are they? What's to save?

[neverdem]

I'm not so concerned about about a bunch of socialismos winning a vote in Europe. I'm thinking about the effect on our so-called allies in NATO, and how Al Qaeda now has reason to believe that they can use terrorism to obtain objectives.

[sarasmom]

The choice was clearly given over two years ago.
It seems Europe is still pretending to play at hedging its bets, and now Spain has openly chosen the other side.
Spain has very right to whatever choice it makes, as does every other soverign nation on this planet.
The Cold War was WW3.
This is WW4.
What they no longer have any right too, is claiming allied status with the USA.
May God have mercy on their souls.

[ChinaThreat]

I understand your passion. However, the Spaniards are not our enemy. They are more like a deer in the headlights. Not much good in a war though. I'm sure the great conquistadors like Cortez and Pizarro are rolling in their graves.

[expatpat]

I don't believe they are indisputable. Just because you insist on them, doesn't make them so. We'll see.

[Nick Danger]

Time to Save an Alliance

Here it is, folks. This is the Alliance that needs saving. Just moments after this picture was taken, the brakes failed and ol' Frenchy there rolled right down the hill and into the lake.

[DentsRun]

I'm not so concerned about about a bunch of socialismos winning a vote in Europe. I'm thinking about the effect on our so-called allies in NATO, and how Al Qaeda now has reason to believe that they can use terrorism to obtain objectives.

Well, you're right. The reason the coalition is so vulnerable is that the Bush administration by and large doesn't have the support of the people of Europe. If it did, terror attacks would backfire in that they'd strengthen European resolve. Because public support for the Iraq War is so weak in Europe, terrorist attacks just make the public there determined not to throw good money after bad. The problem in Spain was that 90% of the people opposed the Iraq War. The next attack will logically come in whatever coalition country also opposes the war by a big margin. I don't know which country that is but I suspect support for the war isn't very high anywhere. In short, it's a mess.

[DentsRun]

the Spaniards are not our enemy. They are more like a deer in the headlights. Not much good in a war though.

I suspect the Spaniards are able enough fighters. And I'm sure they will do everything within their power to search and destroy the people who did this to their country. The reason they're backing out of the Iraqi war is that 90% of the public never wanted to be in it in the first place. They're not giving up. They're changing a government which disregarded the will of the people.

[section9]

You're quite correct about the proposition that the Aznar government didn't lead the Spanish people along. The vote of last Sunday need not have happened, but it did, and one of the reasons that the Spanish were so susceptible to turning out their government was the proposition that the Madrid government acted against the will of the people.

What you fail to address, however, is a more salient, troubling fact. I will bet you dimes, dollars, to doughnuts that most Europeans, including the Spaniards, oppose the War on Terror itself. The Iraq imbroglio was merely an excuse for the Europeans to go to the sidelines as we, the Brits, and the Aussies continued our war against Al Qaeda.

The Spanish voters were acting in what they perceived to be their immediate self-interest. However, that doesn't alter the fact that their conduct will bring far reaching, rather negative consequences for Spain itself. As Churchill said in the wake of Munich:

"Britain and France were forced to choose between dishonour and war. They chose dishonour. They will get war."

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[JasonC]

The people supported the government until 4 days before the election, when they changed their minds because terrorists killed 200 innocent people - and they blamed their own government, and ours, rather than the bastards who did it. Your lies on their behalf aren't the least bit believable anymore. If the incoming leaders just wanted out because they couldn't do so much anymore, pleading weakness, that would be one thing. They aren't and they don't. They are attacking the policy, blaming the US, saying we've made them less safe. The new PM has previously called US troops on parade in Spain after joint exercises "an occupying force". They are *not* pro-American.