'PASSION' RISING TOWARDS BOX OFFICE HISTORY (Estimates Surpassing Original Star Wars?)

Miami Herald ^ | March 16, 2004 | Carrie Rickey

[threat matrix]

'The Passion of the Christ', the movie that film superstar Mel Gibson personally financed because no studio thought it was commerically viable, could become the highest grossing film in history.

By the end of business Sunday, the story of Jesus final hours had grossed $264.5 million in the United States and Canada. The film opened on Ash Wednesday, February 25.

'If The Passion continues on this trajectory, it is possible for it to surpass Star Wars ($461 million) and Titanic ($600.8 million) as the domestic box office champion of all time,' said Paul Dergarabedian of Exhibitor Relations Inc, which tracks film revenue.

Hollywood's historic rankings are tabulated in non-inflation adjusted dollars.

More conservative estimates have the Passion topping out at $375 million domestically, putting it in the elite company of all time Oscar winner Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which thus far has earned $371.1 million

'But Easter is coming,' and that will keep the audience motivated, says producer Tom Pollock, former head of Universal Studios.

Given the intense response to the Passion, Pollock predicts it will play in selected theatres throughout the year and get a wide theatrical re-release for Christmas and Easter 2005, putting it over 400 million.

[threat matrix]

Will Hollywood start believing now?

[Dialup Llama]

>Will Hollywood start believing now?

They believe in the long green. Gibson's money spends just as well as Tim Robbin's.

[dts32041]

so when do you get back on TV?

[TheBigB]

Why of course. You'll see Hollywood cranking out Biblical epics every week now. Of course, in keeping with Hollywood tradition, all of the following rules must apply to every movie:

1) Jesus was gay. There shall be no discussion.
2) His disciples were a multicultural group; at least 50% minority and/or female.
3) Jesus supported gun control (I realize guns had not been invented. This is irrelevant.)

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

I don't want to throw any cold water on these speculations, but it isn't tracking that strong. If it breaks $400 million, it will be one of the biggest movies ever, but $600 million to beat Titanic would be quite surprising even with it's great success so far, and that includes looking at a big Easter Weekend bump. Number 6 U.S. all time? Probably. Number 2? If it keeps its legs well into May. Number 1? We would likely have to be talking about it being in the top 10 in the first week of August for that to happen.

A Huge victory for Gibson, a dramatic wake up call to Hollywood, and a great testament to The Passion of the Christ. But lets not count it as the biggest selling movie ever until we have a few more weeks of data.

[Dialup Llama]

>Why of course. You'll see Hollywood cranking out Biblical epics every week now. Of course, in keeping with Hollywood tradition, all of the following rules must apply to every movie:

>1) Jesus was gay...

I have read that the movies soon coming out on the CS Lewis books will be faithful to Lewis's story and themes (it apparently is not being rewritten and de-christianized).

[Mr. Bird]

Not to throw cold water on your cold water, but how significant is Star Wars as a benchmark in gross dollars? I assume the $461 mill figure is in 1977 dollars; what's that worth 25 years later? Is there any way to measure number of tickets sold? That would seem to be more helpful in gauging a films popularity from a historic perspective.

Actually, it would be very interesting to see how films like GWTW, Star Wars, ET, Casablanca, etc. stack up on a "number of tickets sold" basis.

[hobbes1]

Somehow I am having a hard time believing that Titianic took in 600 mil.....


That movie suicked royally.

[spetznaz]

You have a point BigB. I remember in another post i said that the movie i would most like to see would be the story of Elijah. I love Elisha too, and also seeing a movie about Acts (the early church) would be something i would like to see too, as would a telling of Abraham. However there is something about Elijah that just gets to me.

However this Freeper asserted that if Hollywood did it the ending would probably have Elijah been taken up into a UFO spaceship thingimajig! And thinking about it that would probably happen.

They wouldn't show lil' green men with antennae, and they would not make the UFO overt. What woudl happpen is they would probably just show part of a shape in the clouds or something.

Sad.

[threat matrix]

Im going to go out on a limb and say $500 million plus domestic.

Passion has a wide open field until Spiderman 2 opens (and that is months away)

[threat matrix]

'Gone with the Wind' is still the all time champ world wide, something like 1.2 billion adjusted for inflation.

[js1138]

I have little faith in Disney live action children's films, not on political or religious grounds, but because I think their live action movies suck. I know they make a lot of money on these, but who can remember one made since 1960 that an adult would want to watch?

[TheBigB]

Top 20 Domestic grossing films, adjusted for inflation*

1 Gone With the Wind
2 Star Wars
3 The Sound of Music
4 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
5 The Ten Commandments
6 Titanic
7 Jaws
8 Doctor Zhivago
9 The Exorcist
10 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
11 101 Dalmatians
12 The Empire Strikes Back
13 Ben-Hur
14 Return of the Jedi
15 The Sting
16 Raiders of the Lost Ark
17 Jurassic Park
18 The Graduate
19 The Phantom Menace
20 Fantasia

*According to www.boxofficemojo.com

[ahayes]

I doubt Hollywood would ever tackle the story of Elijah--remember the massive interfaith service he held with fatal results for the priests of Baal?

[sawoody]

I have read that the movies soon coming out on the CS Lewis books will be faithful to Lewis's story and themes (it apparently is not being rewritten and de-christianized).

---

Which CS Lewis books? Chronicles of Narnia?

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

As already said, GWTW is the all time leader adjusted for inflation. Star Wars (Also known as Star Wars: A New Hope) was re-released (in 1997 I believe) as a "Special Edition" and that dollar figure was added to it's total.

Actual ticket sales are harder to come by as the industry does not track those. And with the advent of the "rush hour show" discounts, and midnight movie and matinee discounts, it would be very hard to track ticket sales.

"The Passion of the Christ" will break $400million it seems and that is an incredible record in and of itself. Let's not set ourselves up for a let down, though, by putting expectations on it that it doesn't seem to be tracking towards.

[threat matrix]

I think the title is 'Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe'

[Cousin Eddie]

This writer is smoking dope. Actually, it's on a trajectory for $340 to $350mm given it's recent results. Even adding in a boost at Easter, that gets it up in the range of LOTR ROTK.

For a hit movie, good rule of thumb is that a movie does in a week (Monday to Sunday) roughly the previous weekend's gross. That has been true to form here. It did $83mm it's first weekend and did $88.7mm the following week (Mon-Sun). The second weekend it did $53mm an then did $50.7mm in the following week. Since it just did $32mm this weekend, it will probably do $30mm or so this week (perhaps $10-$12mm Mon-Thu and then $18-20mm on the weekend). Projecting this pattern out gets you in the range of $335-350mm. It will certainly have an Holy Week boost, so throw in and extra $20-30mm and that gets you in the range of ROTK.

It ain't going to get to Star Wars or Titanic domestically.

Nothing against the movie (it is great), just a cold analysis of reality.

[Zack Nguyen]

The Passion is doing fantastic. But remember that Star Wars cleared over $300 million in its first release in the late 1970's, when movie tickets were much, much cheaper than they are today.

That being said, expect The Passion to do a lot of business over Easter weekend. I'm delighted to see Hollywood turned on its ear. Better still that people are seeing a movie worth the price of admission, and a movie that makes them think about the Christian faith.

[threat matrix]

So we're talking 375-385 before the re- releases?