Emperor Buffett has no clothes!!! (neither will CA, pretty soon-My Add)

CBS MarketWatch.com ^ | 3/15/04 | Thomas Kostigen

[SierraWasp]

SOPHISTICATED INVESTOR

Emperor Buffett has no clothes
His buy-and-hold strategy deprives investors of useful tools

By Thomas Kostigen, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 8:34 PM ET March 15, 2004

SANTA MONICA, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Warren Buffett may be the most overrated money manager in history.

Last year, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA: news, chart, profile) (BRKB: news, chart, profile) underperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index by nearly 8 percentage points. Some $36 billion of his holdings are in cash, or cash equivalents. He sidestepped the dot.com bubble (and all those gains too). He barely participates in the technology sector (besides a reported throw-away personal ownership of 100 shares of Microsoft). And his biggest claim to fame is: buy and hold, otherwise known as value investing.

Any chimp can buy and hold an investment. As any money manager will tell you, the art to managing money is in the sale. But Buffett hasn't sold well either, as he admitted in his most recent shareholder letter: "We are neither enthusiastic nor negative about the portfolio we hold. We own pieces of excellent businesses -- all of which had good gains in intrinsic value last year -- but their current prices reflect their excellence. The unpleasant corollary to this conclusion is that I made a big mistake in not selling several of our larger holdings during The Great Bubble. If these stocks are fully priced now, you may wonder what I was thinking four years ago when their intrinsic value was lower and their prices far higher. So do I."

Berkshire Hathaway bought home manufacturer Clayton Homes and Wal-Mart distribution unit McLane. Monday it joined to lead a group acquiring Safeco. See story. Its biggest holdings are American Express (AXP: news, chart, profile), Coca-Cola (KO: news, chart, profile), Gillette (G: news, chart, profile), Moody's (MCO: news, chart, profile), H&R Block (HRB: news, chart, profile) and The Washington Post (WPO: news, chart, profile).

To be sure, Buffett's portfolio is "safe." But when you are paying nearly $100,000 per share for Berkshire Hathaway stock, (about $3,000 per shares for B class), there should be some more zip to your portfolio.

No hedging, no derivatives, no alternative structures or fancy trading can be found at Berkshire Hathaway. Indeed, it wasn't until two years ago that Buffett even decided to buy foreign currencies.

Buffett has, of course, been called out before. During the tech boom of the 1990s, he was called a "has been" and someone who, according to Technology Investor Magazine, missed the "silicon, wireless, DSL, cable and biotech revolutions."

Options have expanded

These too are different times, different from the 1960s and 1970s when Buffett's buy-and-hold strategy was "ahead of its time." Now, international markets can be accessed through cutting-edge trading techniques to acquire positions in companies that may be better performers than those here in the U.S.

Shouldn't sophisticated investors be paying a money manager to utilize the best the securities markets have to offer? Shouldn't that include customized securities, innovative structures, facile trading, deep research and dead-on forecasting? Shouldn't these be the tools of the trade for "the best money manager in the world?"

How embarrassing to underperform the S&P in today's day and age. But maybe that's the problem; Buffett doesn't look at the capital markets as today's day and age. He invests for the long-term -- too long, in my opinion.

We all know trading the market is a greater risk than buying the market. However, participation in the equity market in any form incurs risk. (It's called equity risk premium, and it's the risk one expects to take by investing in the stock market versus risk-free investments such as Treasury bonds.) For this, investors expect to be compensated by increased return.

By mitigating risk and investment possibilities, Buffett has boxed himself into a corner. He admits as much in this year's much-scrutinized shareholder letter released earlier this month: "We've found it hard to find significantly undervalued stocks." And several years ago, he wrote this about his lack of technology knowledge: "In effect, that's a 7- or 8-foot bar that I can't clear. There are people who can, but I can't."

Buffett has set the bar too low for himself and his investors. And he knows it. "Unless we achieve gains in per-share intrinsic value in the future that outdo the S&P's performance, (Vice Chair Charlie Munger) and I will be adding nothing to what you can accomplish on your own."

That's a sad admission.

The 'oracle' is 'so yesterday'

With a portfolio that is about as fancily put together as my father's Oldsmobile, he is outdated.

Coca-Cola? Gillette? Wells Fargo (WFC: news, chart, profile)? Gee whiz.

Take a look at the returns garnered by the top strategists tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, a service of CBS MarketWatch. Take a look at the top hedge fund managers' rates of return. Or even take a look at an investment in water for the past seven years. Compared to any of these benchmarks, Buffett is sinking.

At 73, Buffett sounds dire: "We are certain Berkshire's performance into the future will fall far short of what it has been in the past," he writes. Ah, but he does philosophize about security valuations: "Yesterday's weeds are today being priced as flowers." That's something you won't find even on the back of a Lipton tea bag.

Here, I'll say it: The emperor has no clothes, and the Oracle of Omaha ain't all that.

[SierraWasp]

This is the guy that taught Arnold that the bondage should last for 15 years, instead of 7! The guy that thought Prop 13 was ridiculous! The guy that encourages Arnold to raise taxes at every opportunity and embarrasses the man!!!

[Cicero]

Well, Buffet's politics are shameful. But his money management is outstanding. Any money manager can underperform the market occasionally. But over the long term, Buffet has done an outstanding job.

[TopQuark]

Thanks for the post: this is the most stupid article I read in a long time.

There is nothing in it except falsehoods, omissions, venom and envy of a man with a small pee-pee.

[GulliverSwift]

Buffet doesn't invest just to make money. He does it to get power, something rich conservatives don't have the brains to do. That's why the left controls the news and entertainment media.

[ServesURight]

Totally agree. I dislike Buffett because he's a liberal elitist who "got his" and the rest of the people can go screw themselves. But there's no need to player-hate on the man. Great investor.

[farmer18th]

Well, Buffet's politics are shameful. But his money management is outstanding.

What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world and loses...

[pointsal]

ping....I am available for adoption or marriage, if the later can be accomplished in Utah.......

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

There is nothing in it except falsehoods, omissions, venom and envy of a man with a small pee-pee.

Why be envious of a man who uses his wealth to promote depopulation and abortion schemes in third-world countries?

Buffett is a nobody. He can't buy his way into Heaven. How many jobs have he created? Did he help anyone less fortunate? No, he just sits on his money as if it'll last forever. Sorry, but I can do without $36 billion.

[norwaypinesavage]

Assuming there is no skill involved, if all the money managers in the world were compared, half would be above average. The next year, at least half of those would be above average,... and so forth. At the end of thirty years, there would still be a few luckey money managers above average for all of those years, even if no skill were involved. Is Warren Buffett above average in skill, or in luck?

[SierraWasp]

"...venom and envy of a man with a small pee-pee."

Sounds exactly like a "Metro-Sexual" to me!!!

But the Oracle of Omaha, ain't exactly no "Rural-Sexual" neither!!!

[SierraWasp]

Hell NO!!! He puts his pants on one leg at a time, just like all of us. By the way, rich folks have more problems than most of the rest of us anyway!!!

Most of us keep ziggin when we should be zaggin. He zagged because he's a student of zaggin and would rather be lucky than smart, anyway!!!

I do, however, think he would benefit from some "Continuing Education!" I got my PHd in human nature from the short time I spent working as a prison guard in Charlie Manson's prison as a youth! It made me wiser, but not smarter, if that's possible.

Old platitude says: "Nothin ventured, Nothin gained!" I like old platitudes! They got to be "platitudes" because they are true no matter how old and worn out they get. Buffet is starting to play too close to his vest and will stop growing his fortune because he's losing his nerve.

Even a multi-billionaire can't rest on his laurels forever! Reputations fade and so do cautious tycoons, eventually.

[Cicero]

Well, I agree entirely. I was only disputing the claim that he's not good at making money. That he does very well.

[lilylangtree]

Finally, someone is writing what I've been thinking.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Well he made his money in NYC and then went to Omaha (that is just up the river from KC , lesser place though, lots colder in the winter, lousy trees )!

NYC warped him!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

But the guy that wrote this is a west coast thrill seeker.

Wouldn't trust him!

[azcap]

Buffet has long since reached critical mass. He is super-wealthy and always will be. His performance with Berkshire Hathaway hardly rates him prophetic "Oracle" status. In the last decade any one of these commonly held stocks out performed Berk: Microsoft, IBM, American Express, Intel... He is hailed as a genius for not getting wiped out by the internet bubble but the converse of that is that he missed out on 4 years of huge gains. Buffet understands how to make a profit and invest in solid profit makers but he is no wizard. He's the kind of guy you want for your insurance agent but not the kind of guy you want in the visionary department.

[Choose Ye This Day]

Well-said.

Buffett differs from the common crop of today's money managers in that he buys companies, not stocks. It's one thing to buy a stock hoping to get a quick bump in the market. It's completely different to buy a company for what it is, who runs it, and to have a long-term profitable relationship.

This author is a foolish tool.

[SierraWasp]

"He's the kind of guy you want for your insurance agent but not the kind of guy you want in the visionary department."

Precisely!!!

[Pelham]

Buffet learned investing from Benjamin Graham. Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis is still one of the best books on investing.

[norwaypinesavage]

"(I) would rather be lucky than smart, anyway!!!"
The question is not really if Buffet has been lucky or smart in the past, but how he will do in the future. If he has been smart, he will be smart in the future, if he has been lucky, he may not be as lucky in the future. He certainly has not been as smart (or lucky) in the past couple of years.