Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Political Junkie Too
The probability of Bush winning at least 270 electoral votes is above .6798.
62 posted on 03/20/2004 2:40:46 PM PST by Wallaby
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies ]


To: Wallaby
When I ran mine, it was lower. At first, I ran 200 iterations, then I bumped it up to 500. Also, I ran one using these probabilities, and another using Dales' probabilities (slightly different). I can't keep them straight now.

However, my expected value matches yours. I'll have to try it again over the weekend with more iterations and see why we're so different. One reason may be that I'm not using a Monte Carlo tool, I'm using home-grown randomization in MS Access. I'll try using some decision tools and see how they differ. You'll see from earlier posts that a 51-node decision tree is too much for my tools. I'll try running an analysis using my 9 supernode tree and see what comes out.

-PJ

64 posted on 03/20/2004 2:45:48 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (It's not safe yet to vote Democrat.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson