-wave their Job-Creation Wands and "create" jobs for 1.4 million part-time-for-economic-reasons people (bringing that number down to Clinton's BEST),
-HALF of those (700K) are actually going to vote
- 1/3 of them are Knee-Jerk (D)s and another 1/3 of them are Voting (R) Anyway, leaving 1/3 (~233K) who could potentially swing to the (R)s if some job were "created" for them
-but of course people don't change their votes like that, people are not automatons you can feed a job to and receive a vote in return. Only some fraction of people are that way.
Frankly, having thought about it a bit more, I'm pretty sure we're talking about something like 100,000 potential swing-to-(R)-if-you-create-them-a-job voters, at most.
I guess I didn't explain it very well. That's been one of my points. I am tired of politicians, pundits, talk show hosts playing with numbers from the BLS. A finite number of Americans are bearing the brunt of changes we are going through because of "globalization" or whatever. Then of course there are the normal number of folks between jobs.
"jobs is jobs" is my shorthand for the attitude that former middleclass job holders (many in their forties and fifties) should take any job and shut up. Most have.
BTW. My experience in the 1940s and 1950s was that one could expect a secure job. No job was owed to you of course but the jobs were there in the factories.
RE: "some fraction of [4.4 million] are already going to vote Republican. (You think otherwise? You REALLY think that everyone who's unemployed uses a knee-jerk, robotic "if I don't have a job I'm voting against the incumbent" voting strategy?)"
I believe that the Limbaugh-Hegecock-Sullivan crowd angers people who have lost their jobs when that crowd trashes the unemployed as being too lazy to work. Here are 4.4 million of them working at the only jobs they can get. "Stop extending unemployment insurance then they'll get jobs!"
So, yes the trashing might well keep some of them home in Nov. I don't think it's a matter of them finding full-time jobs. They know that we are going through changes in the economy -- the recovery started more than two years ago and job creation is still lagging! -- this is not a classic recovery. They are smart enough to know that but their critics are not.
"their votes turn ENTIRELY on whether they have a job. It assumes they are machines, if you feed them a job, they give you a vote. In REALITY, people aren't like that."
I agree.
Thanks for taking the time and providing a good analysis. I agree with what you say but I didn't explain my view well enough.
I guess I should have been more precise. It's not the lack of good jobs (they'll show, when? don't know), it's the trashing of the unemployed. Look at these threads on unemployment issues.
I am not directly affected but I have heard the President himself say that we need to create more good jobs. I won't "stay home in Nov." because of what the rank-and-file are saying. "Amnesty" for ILLEGAL aliens still needs fleshing out however -- IMO that means something closer for a call for a regime change in Mexico City. I am directly affected by ILLEGAL aliens.