TX Primary Analysis (How RINO Gov. Perry nominated a Democrat environmental wacko to our courts)

Analysis of Third Court district voting results Smith / Green /Pemberton In the 3rd Court of Appeals area, three candidates for appellate courts were endorsed by Rick Perry, and two won.

The one candidate on whose behalf Gov. Perry was most active was Paul William Green, who defeated Justice Steven Wayne Smith for the Supreme Court. The candidate who beat Ernest Garcia was William Paul "Bill" Green.

William Paul Green is a long-time Democrat and environmentalist whose commitment to the environment is so strong he rides a bus or bicycles to work rather than drive. Paul William Green is a 10-year San Antonio Appeals judge.

Paul Green out-spent Smith by a three-to-one margin. Garcia outspent Bill Green more than thirty-to-one. Pemberton out-spent his opponent by a similar margin.

Not surprisingly, Paul Green won the majority of the counties - 14 of the 24 -- in the Third Court district. Bill Green won 22 of 24 counties. Pemberton won only 8 counties, but won populous Bell and Travis by large enough margins to carry the day.

Paul Green won his race in the Third by 3,352 votes. December 2003 Perry appointee Bob Pemberton, also endorsed by Perry also won his race by a similar margin (3,344). Despite vastly dissimilar inputs, Ernest Garcia lost to Bill Green by 4,923.

Did the name matter? Unquestionably. Was the outcome a result of anti-Hispanic bias? Probably not.

In the neighboring, and demographically similar, (Waco-based) 10th Court of Appeals, Felipe Reyna defeated challenger Lynnan Kendrick by 1,347 votes.

Gov. Perry's Green, Paul Green, had lots of green ($) to spread around. He sent three mailers into all contested congressional districts, and some targeted counties, including Travis. In addition, Paul Green (HE) spent over $120,000 on radio ADS, and did direct automated phone calls on the first day of early voting and again on the Monday before election day.

And the phone calls that final Monday carried Rick Perry's voice, and emphasized his strong endorsement of Green.

This benefited Paul Green as it was meant to, but also benefited the other Green just below him on the ballot.

There was no rational reason why voters would choose Bill Green, and, as Reyna demonstrates, irrational reasons cannot explain the result. But the endorsement of Paul Green by a sitting governor, reinforced by a phone call the day before, does explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Bill Green made no public appearances whatsoever. Paul Green, like Smith, Garcia, and Pemberton, campaigned energetically.

Garcia was endorsed by Gov. Perry, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and 23 of the 24 Republican county chairs in the Third Court. No other candidate came close to such a sweep of elected officials and activists (Smith swept the activists and lower officials) against Paul Green, while Paul Green picked up Sen. John Cornyn and the Combined Law Enforcement Association of Texas.)

Garcia sent out three mailers to most Republican voters, and a phone call to 31,000 active Republican households (the total vote was 77,659 in the Garcia/Green race, 74,658 in the Pemberton race, and 77,884 in the Smith/Green race. The Paul Green advertising apparently created an impression of familiarity in the minds of Bill Green voters, bringing at least an additional 4,001 to cast ballots where they had skipped the less publicized Pemberton race.

But what accounts for the fact that Bill Green won more counties than Paul Green?

Both Smith and Garcia sent mailers into the area, though Garcia sent more. Smith also advertised on the radio, while Garcia did direct automated phone calls. But Smith was a known elected official and public figure in much of the district while Garcia was not. Not only was Smith known statewide for his work for the plaintiffs in the Hopwood anti-race-preferences case, but he also had run just two years ago in the Republican primary, and fifteen months ago in the general election. Garcia's previous electoral experience was limited to Travis County IN 2000, so he was unknown to many voters across the 24-county area.

Garcia and Bill Green are both Travis County residents, and Garcia cleaned Green's clock in Travis County (1,715 vote advantage).

It seems clear, then, that the Rick Perry recruitment and endorsement of Paul Green led directly to the Bill Green victory.

The irony here is enormous. Perry recruited Paul Green to avenge the loss of Perry appointee Xavier Rodriguez, a self-described moderate with no prior judicial experience appointed solely to allow Perry to claim the mantle of "Hispanic outreach" in his contest against the first ever Hispanic Democratic candidate for Governor. The result was the defeat of Ernest Garcia, an experienced judge whose conservatism has never been questioned - a judge, who, had Perry appointed him in Rodriguez's place in 2002, Smith would not have challenged.

Smith's campaign manager, in fact, appeared as a surrogate for Garcia, and actively worked to promote Garcia's candidacy across the 24-county region.

I know. I managed the Smith campaign. And Ernest Garcia is still the best man for the Republican nomination in the Third Court, place four.

I know that because I know Bill Green. I met with Bill Green and tried to talk him out of the race, and Green lied to me and said he would withdraw.

And now Rick Perry's machinations have led to a hard-core environmentalist, who voted in Democrat primaries until 1998, and who worked for left-liberal Democrat state representative Steve Wolens (D-Dallas), being selected as the Republican nominee.

The result will be that the Third Court of Appeals, the most powerful intermediate appellate court in Texas, stays divided 3-3. Had Garcia been elected (and Pemberton retained), the Third Court, which hears all appeals from lawsuits involving any state agency, would have been in Republican hands for the first time ever.

This court is a critical chokepoint for Democrats who want to stop or delay Republican legislative, administrative and executive reforms.

Wow.

I was going to write something very similar, David Rogers did it for me.

"The irony here is enormous. Perry recruited Paul Green to avenge the loss of Perry appointee Xavier Rodriguez, a self-described moderate with no prior judicial experience appointed solely to allow Perry to claim the mantle of "Hispanic outreach" in his contest against the first ever Hispanic Democratic candidate for Governor. The result was the defeat of Ernest Garcia, an experienced judge whose conservatism has never been questioned - a judge, who, had Perry appointed him in Rodriguez's place in 2002, Smith would not have challenged."

"Smith's campaign manager, in fact, appeared as a surrogate for Garcia, and actively worked to promote Garcia's candidacy across the 24-county region.

I know. I managed the Smith campaign. And Ernest Garcia is still the best man for the Republican nomination in the Third Court, place four."

I saw David on Tuesday, when I went to what I though would be a 'victory party' for Smith - turned into a wake. He put his heart and soul into the Steven Smith race and was quite emotional to see him and Ernest go down. It was a heartbreaking loss. I am still angry about the loss of Ernest. I gave him money, handed out some flyers (not enough I guess), and had his bumper sticker. I told everyone that he was right for the job.

This race should not have been close, but Perry's autodialing to 'vote Green' created a wave of ignorance that
washed over Ernest Garcia.

CAN WE UN-NOMINATE A CANDIDATE LIKE BILL GREEN???

CAN WE UN-NOMINATE A CANDIDATE LIKE BILL GREEN???

It's a long shot and would almost certainly lead to a court battle and some lawsuits, but I would support an attempt to do so in the form of a "nullification" rule at the state convention that strips BOTH Greens of their nominations. The party could theoretically do this in San Antonio, which would automatically prompt a lawsuit from both Greens based upon Texas election statutes that say they earned the nomination. It is my belief that the Republican Party could successfully fight off a lawsuit of that type based upon a relatively recent precedent in which the Arkansas Democrats were allowed to refuse to seat Lyndon LaRouche delegates at their convention even though they had won delegate slots under state law. The premise of that ruling was that political parties are PRIVATE organizations and can accordingly choose their own candidates. Laws that prevent them from doing so are therefore unconstitutional.

The primaries are over. The Rats are united. Kerry thinks that the threat of terrorism is overblown, wants to reduce intelligence spending, and treat the terrorists like criminals rather than the enemy in a war.

Remember Ronald Reagan and the 11th Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican

I'm not nuts about Perry, but give the man his due. He had a heck of a session. Democrats ran to Oklahoma, they ran to New Mexico, and Perry didn't blink.

He didn't blink because he had Tom DeLay breathing down his throat and the RNC letting him know that there would be hell to pay if he caved.

And for the irony of ironies: guess who gave a $5,000 endorsement to Paul Green, Perry's candidate for supreme court. That's right - the lead attorney for the Chicken D's in New Mexico!

Reagan said not to speak ill of other Republicans but Rick Perry is no true Republican. He's a petty, vindictive, power peddling moderate who guts our party of its most conservative officeholders in the primary and then turns around to demand that we support him in the general.

I'm not nuts about Perry, but give the man his due. He had a heck of a session. Democrats ran to Oklahoma, they ran to New Mexico, and Perry didn't blink. He ran a legislative session and didn't raise taxes, despite enormous pressure to do so.

He did fine in the session. But his actions during the session are no reason to give him a pass for his actions in this primary. He got conservative jurists beat because he is a sore loser. He replaced a good conservatives with a gay environmental wacko and a pro-abortion trial lawyer friendly jurist that took money the Chicken D's lawyers. Way to go Rick.

The primaries are over. The Rats are united. Kerry thinks that the threat of terrorism is overblown, wants to reduce intelligence spending, and treat the terrorists like criminals rather than the enemy in a war.

Not really sure what this has to do with anything.

Remember Ronald Reagan and the 11th Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican

Well Perry isn't a Republican and frankly Reagan got this one wrong. Just because they are a Republican does not mean that they should be immune from criticism from their own party.

but I would support an attempt to do so in the form of a "nullification" rule at the state convention that strips BOTH Greens of their nominations."

Non-starter. Paul Green got establishment support. I am on the Susan Lilly list. everyone gave to him ... dont ask me why. And everyone endorsed him.

We could however go after Bill Green. Maybe if we get enough affidavits of people who voted for Bill Green, we could get a 'nullification'.

"It is my belief that the Republican Party could successfully fight off a lawsuit of that type based upon a relatively recent precedent in which the Arkansas Democrats were allowed to refuse to seat Lyndon LaRouche delegates at their convention even though they had won delegate slots under state law."

Likewise we could fight off this if there is some power for the party to withdraw support based on voter confusion.

The effort would be pretty much in vain if the end result is an empty name on the ballot ... can we go back and undo that so that Garcia is back on the ballot?

"The primaries are over. The Rats are united. Kerry thinks that the threat of terrorism is overblown, wants to reduce intelligence spending, and treat the terrorists like criminals rather than the enemy in a war.

Not really sure what this has to do with anything."

It's election season. Deer season, hunt deer.

Election Season, Hunt Democrats.

He didn't blink because he had Tom DeLay breathing down his throat and the RNC letting him know that there would be hell to pay if he caved.

That's the point. How much influence would DeLay have had over Ma Richards? You might be able to get a RINO to submit to a spine implant. You have no influence over a Rat. If he runs for re-election, I'm going to support someone else in the primaries, and I hope that someone else is a Libertarian-Republican. But if Perry wins the primaries, well, to quote FDR, "He may be a son of a b!tch, but he's our son of a b!tch". BTW, I work the primaries pretty heavily, and tend to be quite the contrarian there. When the primaries are over, I'm ready to go Rat huntin!

Non-starter. Paul Green got establishment support. I am on the Susan Lilly list. everyone gave to him ... dont ask me why. And everyone endorsed him

I'm not sure what happened in your part of the state but in mine (Harris County/Houston) the exact opposite was true. Smith got most of our local party leadership endorsements and even got two of the three major "rent-a-slates," which almost always go with Perry's guy. There were only 2 notable Green endorsements out of Houston that I can think of: one was by the United Republicans which is a "big tent" pro-abort moderate group that nobody listens to, and the other was by the leftist Houston Chronicle.

What about X41 for Senator to replace KBH, or for Gov if KBH doesn't challenge Perry?

As Rockefeller Republican as he is, I wouldn't particularly care to see him in the Statehouse, when we're going to have to fight for DOMA and border issues, or even for an amendment on SSM, but at least it's not like most big-state governorships. He'd blend in better in the Senate, where he'd probably fit right in with Bill Frist, Chuck Grassley and those guys as an ACU-65/70 mild conservative. He'd be an instant player -- as a consular, he would never be a "freshman" senator, ignored and disregarded -- so we wouldn't have to give up so much vig if, pardon the expression, Kay bailed. Plus, I like the idea of someone continuing to throw a shadow over John Cornyn, who smells to me like a throwback to the kind of senator who used to be in bankers' or oilmen's pockets.

Plus, we haven't had an ex-President sit in the Congress since John Quincy Adams. It might spruce the place up.

What do you think?

I think this analysis looks pretty accurate. And it would have been easier on everyone if Smith had been given a pass to the general election. However, blaming everything on Perry is not fair. If Smith wants to primary Perry's nominee, Perry could support primarying Smith. It's not his fault that Bill had the same last name as Paul. The Smith-Green race is more proof, in my opinion, that Anglos do better than Hispanics in GOP primaries. Smith could beat incumbent Hernandez, but as an incumbent himself loses to challenger Paul Green. How can anyone now say Smith's win was due to an overriding preference for his Hopwood, etc, fame?

Overall, a relatively good showing for Hispanic Republicans.

Anyone know what happened in the Rondon-McCally race, the other Hispanic incumbent that was primaried?

I'm not nuts about Perry, but give the man his due.

I'm not going to give the man his due, because most of what he has done has been on the backs of others, and the people he has championed have not all been real Conservatives.

I'll admit that I have not cared for Perry since he was a rising star in the democrat party.

I'll take Carole Keeton any day of the week, because I know her history and that she is a true Republican, and comes from a large family of Republicans. I also knew her father and I have a great deal of respect for him, and her sons obviously have done well, working directly for President Bush.

She did some things I didn't care for, but I understand where she was coming from, whereas with Perry, he does things that leave me scratching my head and wondering if he is still loyal to his old party.

The elder Bush would be an interesting addition, I have to admit, however I doubt he wants to get back into that. He's certainly earned the time off and his retirement.

I don't think Perry will win again though, for several reasons, the least of which he harps on fixing the system and lowering or restraining property taxes, when taxes elsewhere will just go up (businesses, certain consumer goods and services, etc.). It's not true tax relief or budget reform if taxes drop in one area and go up in another.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.