For the younger crowd, here is proof.
Posted on 03/11/2004 3:21:24 PM PST by calcowgirl
VANCOUVER — It's the most abundant element in the universe. It promises limitless supplies of pollution-free energy.
Hydrogen is the holy grail for anyone determined to free the world eventually from its dependence on oil and natural gas.
Cars and homes will run on electricity made without combustion by combining hydrogen and air, the only byproducts being heat and water.
But after years of promotion by its advocates, sometimes bordering on hype, many people have become jaded and even skeptical that a brave, clean new world is just around the corner.
The message from industry insiders, though, is hang in there.
You won't be able to drive a fuel-cell car off a dealer's lot soon or live off the grid in a hydrogen fuel-cell home. But you might riding a fuel-cell bus or using a backup generator utilizing a small fuel cell before the end of this decade.
And if you're the kind of person who bought the first clunky VCR in the 1970s or struggled with the first pea-brained desktop computer, you could be plunking down cash — maybe a lot — for a first-generation fuel-cell automobile by the end of the decade.
Former oilman George W. Bush now talks about the hydrogen economy and has committed $1.7-billion (U.S.) to research.
Even California's Hummer-driving new governor is on board, endorsing a "hydrogen highway" refuelling network for the state.
Next month, the Globe 2004 environmental conference in Vancouver will hear plans to extend the project to British Columbia in time for the 2010 Winter Olympics.
Coincidentally, Firoz Rasul, chairman of Ballard Power Systems Ltd., the Vancouver fuel-cell pioneer, this year took over the rotating chairmanship of the California Fuel Cell Partnership, the small but influential business-government coalition that helps set the development agenda globally.
Mr. Rasul says he expects to meet with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger next month about beginning the $200-million project, a key piece of infrastructure needed to make fuel cell-powered vehicles practical.
"I think the present governor is not only verbally committed to continuing to protect the environment but he's already started to take action that we feel bodes well for this initiative to continue," says Mr. Rasul.
Momentum is finally building towards commercializing hydrogen energy, says Jarrett Carson, who analyses energy technology for RBC Capital Markets.
"We used to have the rolling 10 years on the transportation side," says Mr. Carson, based in Austin, Tex. "It was 10 years away every year. It never shortened up.
"Incrementally, I do believe maybe we've tightened the range now and that 2010 to 2012 is a reasonable time frame to see some substantive production on the transportation side."
Fuel-cell products without wheels may be even closer, he says, with portable backup power applications filtering into the market perhaps this year.
Commercial versions of larger scale stationary fuel-cell units should follow, says Mr. Carson, adding lots of work is also being done at the micro-power level. Computer chipmaker Intel, for instance, wants a hybrid fuel-cell for laptops by 2007.
"I think between '05 and '07 we're going to see some really interesting things in the small-scale arena," says Mr. Carson.
There are no hard estimates about how much government and industry is spending on hydrogen energy development.
Ron Britton, president of Fuel Cells Canada, does a back-of-the-matchbox calculation and comes up with about $3-billion, but some think its much more.
There's little argument, though, about the global effort to achieve the hydrogen economy, with countries and companies simultaneously competing and working together on a scale seldom seen outside wartime.
"I don't want to use the word unprecedented," says Mr. Carson. "But it certainly is very rare to see this type of an effort where everyone is generally targeting the same direction."
But for all the blue-skying, hydrogen energy development is still in early infancy, with small-scale demonstration projects aimed at proving the technology.
After soaring in the late 1990s, interest in shares of companies like Ballard declined when it became clear they'd be burning cash for some time and profitable products were a long way off.
Investor interest has returned, says Mr. Carson, though new equity offerings are smaller and aimed at fuelling specific lines of development.
The added funding propels development, he says, which in turn builds investor confidence — a virtuous cycle.
Some companies are looking for ways to cash in now on their technology. Ballard, for instance, touts the compatibility of its electric components, downstream of the fuel cell itself, with hybrid cars now in vogue among automakers.
Toronto-based Stuart Energy Systems Ltd, which completed a $21-million share offering last month, is a leader in developing hydrogen refuelling stations and part of the hydrogen highway project.
Meanwhile, it's working on a hybrid bus that burns hydrogen in an internal combustion engine instead of a petro fuel.
"You achieve essentially about 99 per cent of the impact that you would achieve with a fuel cell," says Stuart vice-president Rob Campbell. "So it's a major pollution reduction in terms of particulate matter, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and other pollution."
While the private sector is doing the lion's share of work, government support will be important for some time, industry experts agree.
Governments will help in standardization and safety protocols for a fuel many people still equate with the airship Hindenberg. Some degree of financial help also will be required as the technology matures.
For hidebound neo-cons, Mr. Carson points out the two-century-old coal industry still gets money for research into things like clean coal and coalbed methane production.
One crucial reservation about hydrogen is whether it's even economical when the full-cycle cost of producing and distributing it are factored in.
Initially, hydrogen supplies will come from petroleum sources, one reason why some oil companies are deeply involved in the technology.
But eventually it's hoped hydrogen will be made from water through electrolysis, which currently takes more energy than it produces.
The problem of safe, on-board hydrogen storage also needs to be licked, although Mr. Campbell says Calgary-based Dynatec Industries is regarded as a leader in that field.
"Properly designed and properly implemented, hydrogen is safe," he says.
Public awareness of hydrogen fuel-cell technology is growing, says Catherine Dunwoody, executive director of the California Fuel Cell Partnership.
The partnership, founded in 1999, polls Californians every year and found awareness last year doubled to four out of 10. As for when people expect to drive a fuel-cell car, the responses are all over the board.
Such information is critical to help manage public expectations, says Joe Irvin, the partnership's communications manager.
"It clearly is important to keep everything in perspective," he says. "Don't oversell, don't underpromise."
But the eventual impact, likely over decades, will be seismic, advocates like Rasul believe, especially in the automotive sector.
"Here's an interesting statistic: If you take all of the power that's in the engines of the 50 million cars made a year, that's equal to the entire global installed electricity generating base," he says.
"You're making enough power every year in cars to power the whole world."
Ughh, you obviously don’t understand the laws of thermodynamics.
The laws of thermodynamics apply to chemical reactions not nuclear reactions.
I am quite well aware that efficient fusion, especially cold fusion, may never be achieved.
It was a joke.
Tell that to a physicist or engineer. Your only further proving my point.
For the younger crowd, here is proof.
Which ones?
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