Senate Poll (For IL GOP and RAT Nominee)

week.com/ ^ | 03/10/04 | AP

[KQQL]

A new poll shows Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jack Ryan are ahead in their nomination battles for the U.S. Senate.

The Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows former Democrat front-runner Blair Hull has seen support plummet. His campaign has been dogged by questions over a messy divorce.

At the same time, attempts to raise questions of character against Ryan over his divorce from actress Jeri Ryan have been unsuccessful.

The poll finds 32 percent of Republican voters polled favor Ryan in the primary. Eleven percent support dairy owner Jim Oberweis.

Among Democrats, Obama had the support of 33 percent of the probable voters. Nineteen percent support Dan Hynes and 16 percent support Hull.

The poll was conducted March Third to the Sixth. It has an error margin of four percentage points.

[ought-six]

"I hope Obama is the 'rat nominee, he'll be easier to beat."

Are you kidding? Hull would have been easier to beat. Obama has already been annointed. He will be the next senator from Illinois. I won't vote for him, but 60% of Illinois will (Illinois is a HEAVILY Democratic state, and Obama meets all the liberal criteria: Minority, articulate, socialist). As much as I don't want to see him win, his election is a foregone conclusion.

[ought-six]

"In illinois you don't advance unless you kiss the two capos hands, jesse 'the bastard maker' jackson, and Richard 'the fat boy' Daley."

That is, unfortunately, quite true.

[KQQL]

IL White RATS who live outside CHicago will not vote for a OBAMAMAMA in th egeneral election..it will be close but
RYan will have a fair chance to hold the seat...

[Meldrim]

And does she normally model for Victoria's Secret?

[KQQL]

she's an actress...

-----

why is she famous?
She plays the part of a sexy alien life form in Star Trek Voyager.

http://www.askmen.com/women/actress/23_jeri_ryan.html

[KQQL]

Boston Public .......the hot teacher....that's her...
jack's ex-wife

[Kuksool]

There are alot of dumb voters in IL. Most people here are not paying attention to the Senate race, let alone the Presidential primaries. I wouldn't be surprised if Downstate voters assume Obama is Muslim and refuse to vote for him, especially if the War on Terrorism takes center stage as an issue.

[JohnnyZ]

I wouldn't be surprised if Downstate voters assume Obama is Muslim and refuse to vote for him

A lot of downstate voters will assume Obama is a Chicago Democrat and refuse to vote for him. We have to win big downstate regardless, and I would assume that Obama won't be in danger of getting less than 90% of blacks, as a white candidate might against Ryan. So it's all about the 'burbs. (I don't know what all this 'collar' stuff is.) I think Blair Hull has become a problem for Jack -- guilt by association, even though their situations aren't comparable.

[lns1122]

Central Illinois independent white middle-aged voter here ... voting for Obama. I think it'll be Ryan v Obama in November. Mr Ryan might want to come up with some real political positions for the occasion rather than rest on his outstanding good looks and even more outstanding bank account. Does this mean George W will be in the State campaigning for Jack?

[AuH2ORepublican]

The way I see it, Jack Ryan needs 60% of the vote Downstate. In the 2000 elections, 20.3% of IL's votes were cast in the city of Chicago (which is lower than it used to be), so a Republican no longer needs over 60% of the vote in the Collar Counties (the traditional requirement) to win statewide---he would need a bit less than 55% assuming that he can garner 22% of the Chicago vote (Bush got 17.2% in the city in 2000, but Jack Ryan will do much, much better there) and 60% of the Downstate vote. Cook County outside Chicago and the Collar Counties (DuPage, Lake, Will, McHenry and Kane) comprised 41.1% of the 2000 vote, and gave Gore a 50%-48% advantage over Bush. Downstate (which I define as the rest of the state) cast 38.6% of the state's votes in 2000 and gave Bush a 51%-46% advantage over Gore. Running against an ultraliberal black Chicagoan with a name such as Barrack Obama, Jack Ryan should have no problem improving upon Bush's performance by 5% in Chicago, by 7% in the suburbs and by 9% Downstate and hold Peter Fitzgerald's Senate seat.

[Kuksool]

FYI. Jim Ryan got close to 59% in the Collar Counties. He lives in Bensenville (Du Page County). He also got 52% of the Downstate vote. I'm surprised he got a majority of Downstate considering Ryan didn't campaign extensively there.

There are lot of Big Govt lovers in the suburbs who call themselves "moderate republicans". These people hate seeing tax dollars being allocated to the South Side of Chicago, but love it when govt spending is directed to park districts, community centers, and schools in their communities. Thus, they are big govt for me but not for thee.

I have yet to see Du Page voters give the thumbs down on referendums that raise taxes for the government schools.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Jim Ryan got close to 59% in the Collar Counties."

---

Is Cook County outside of Chicago included in this calculus? If so, it is an extremely impressive result even for a DuPager; if not, it is still impressive, but not Earth shattering, since Bush got 53.3% in the Collar Counties if one excludes the Cook suburbs, and thus it would only be a 5.7% improvement. In any event, Ryan has his sub-par performance Downstate to blame for his defeat. Letting a liberal Chicagoan such as Blago run almost even down there is an embarrassment.

[Kuksool]

The Collar Counties are described as counties just outsided of Cook. They include Du Page, Lake, Kane, Will, McHenry, and Kendall.

Blago spent much of his 2002 summer attending county fairs in Downstate. Jim Ryan was nowhere to be seen. Blago even told Downstaters that he supported gun owener's rights and no one challenged him on his gun-grabbin' votes in Congress. Jim Ryan ran a brain dead campaign.