Canada: Health-care system unsustainable, says think tank

TheStar ^ | 03/10/04 | CP

[Pikamax]

Health-care system unsustainable, says think tank

OTTAWA (CP) — The health-care system is not sustainable in its current form, the Conference Board of Canada said in a report released today.

The system, which cost $121 billion last year, requires an increase of more than $5 billion a year just to maintain existing services, says the think tank. That's a 4.1 per cent increase, more than double the rate of inflation.

The study is more sombre than the Romanow report which said the system can be sustained provided there is reform and increased federal funding.

"Some provinces could spend in excess of 50 per cent of their budgets on health care by 2020, just as the demographic bulge of Canadian seniors start to pass through the systems," the conference board report said.

"This challenge cuts to the heart of medicare — the belief that health care is a public good for all who need it, regardless of their ability to pay."

In contrast, a December report by the Canadian Institute for Health Information, a federal-provincial body, said health costs can be managed.

"Canadian studies suggest that the effects of population growth and aging will be manageable . . . within the context of a growing economy," the institute said.

Canada last year allocated 10 per cent of GDP to health, the same proportion as in 1992.

The conference board does not call for more health spending, but it does point to an imbalance in the current arrangements.

It predicts that federal surpluses will rise steadily over the next 17 years, reaching $78 billion by 2019-20, while the aggregate provincial-territorial deficit will rise to $11 billion.

The study gives the system poor marks overall. It says Canada is the third-highest health spender among OECD countries, yet ranks 13th on a set of health indicators.

But it adds the system is an important economic engine, employing 1.5 million skilled and educated people, or 10 per cent of the employed work force.

It is silent on whether there should be an expanded role for private health care, but notes that the debate is headed for the Supreme Court of Canada.

In that case, Quebec family doctor Jacques Chaoulli and his patient George Zeliotis argue that patients have a constitutional right to pay for medical service.

"If successful, this court challenge will have a profound influence on the financing and timely delivery of health care in Canada," says the study.

The report was commissioned for Alberta Health and Wellness. Alberta has been very critical of the current medicare system, but lead author Glen Roberts said the provincial government had no influence on his conclusions.

"I think it points out what we have been saying all along, that money is not the solution, it's part of the puzzle, but that substantial reform needs to take place," said Alberta Premier Ralph Klein in Edmonton.

Klein said Alberta's funding of the $138,000 study shouldn't cause people to question the report's validity.

"They can have all the doubts they want, but the conference board is a highly respected and very credible organization."

The conference board is a not-for-profit, applied research organization based in Ottawa that examines economic trends, public policy issues and organizational performance. Members include a broad range of Canadian organizations from the public and private sectors.

[G L Tirebiter]

just as the demographic bulge of Canadian seniors start to pass through the systems

I suggest gentle, fast acting Philipp's Milk of Magnesia.

[safeasthebanks]

Great point. I nearly fell over myself when I saw that statement in this article. As if, should the government health-care system go down tomorrow, all these people would be permanently unemployed and/or have to switch careers!

Heaven forbid a commercial entity actually try and succeed in an industry with basically a never-ending customer supply. Why, they may actually want to turn a profit (gasp)!