Rassmussen Tracking Poll has Kerry and Bush in a dead heat on Monday March 8th:
46% to 46%
Rassmussen uses 1,500 subjects not a mere 503 like CNN!
The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. CNN/Gallop/USA Today Poll is Bogus !
but rasmussen uses machines , and he sucked in 00....
NPR poll is probably on the mark:
The study, conducted by Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, found that when rating their interest in the coming election on a scale of one to 10, 63 percent of likely voters put themselves at a level of 10. McInturff says interest in this election already exceeds interest in the previous two presidential elections two weeks before those votes.
The poll also revealed an electorate almost evenly divided between President Bush and his presumed Democratic opponent, Sen. John Kerry. At 53 percent, Bush's approval rating remains healthy. But when asked whom they'd vote for today, 47 percent of likely voters chose Bush, while 45 percent picked Kerry -- a virtual tie.
http://www.npr.org/display_pages/features/feature_1748548.html