[KQQL]

Kerry 52% - W 44%
W Approval @ 49%
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
MOE+/-5% (Likely Voters) 03/05-07/04

Kerry 50% - W 45%
USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup
MOE+/-4% (Reg Voters) 03/05-07/04
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Sounds like RATS are more likley to vote in 04 than Republicans per this poll...

[FRgal4u]

Not arguing the weak number Bushhas now - it is farily consistent that he is in the mid 40s - say 45 +/- 4 pts in various polls.

The gallup weekend and likely voters poll is interesting, why don't they sample the poll during the regular week instead of the weekend.

One more interesting tibit - Bush consistently doing better with approvals than actual votes in these polls - this gap won't last. The change in Iraq sentiment is a positive, at least not a negative for Bush for now.

The economy is a sticky issue, Bush need to sharpen the message. While it is very hard to paint a good picture in the backdrop of a bad jobs report, Bush MUST reshape his arguments over the economy. My suggestion is to avoid rosy talks like GDP, productivity, jobs will be coming kind of stuff (most voters don't know what GDP or productivity measures are), but rather citing - look where we have been (the burst of the tech bubble, the 9/11 event, the war[s], the scandals), and look where are now - the STOCK MARKET is recovering (Dow Jones Industrials up 3000 pts since the bottom in 2003), the HOUSING MARKET is booming, tell the majority ofthe people that he cares about those who lost jobs and still looking of rone, but he MUST show his record that Stock mkt has rebounded, the mortgages most people paying now are lower than that of four years ago. A rising stock market, a rising home equity value is where most voters will determined their financial health. He needs to pushing hard the stock and housing market theme to buttress his economic message. There are 140 million people in this country has a stake in the stock market, and 70 million households who own a home. These are much bigger numbers than the 50 million votes he or Gore got in 2000.

jmho.