In a war of words with Bush, Chávez would win

Miami Herald ^ | March 4, 2004 | Andres Oppenheimer - The Oppenheimer Report

[Cincinatus' Wife]

If you think Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chávez was out of his mind when he broke the last vestige of diplomatic etiquette and called President Bush ''a jerk'' in his three-hour speech to the nation Sunday, you may be wrong.

The majority view among senior U.S. officials and Latin American diplomats is that Chávez, the former army coup plotter who was elected in 1998 and has since driven his country on an increasingly authoritarian path, has made a decision to provoke the United States into an all-out confrontation and to radicalize his ''Bolivarian'' revolution.

It sounds crazy for Chávez to take on the United States, by far Venezuela's biggest oil client. But look at it from his point of view:

First, Chávez needs to divert attention from his government's steps to full-fledged totalitarian rule. Chávez was cornered by the political opposition's petition seeking a referendum to drive him out of office. Having decided to arbitrarily disqualify the petition containing 3.4 million signatures, he needed a conflict with Washington.

Second, Chávez needs to ''internationalize'' Venezuela's political crisis to find blame for the collapse of his country's economy, which has already produced an additional 2.5 million poor since he took office. He wants to be seen as a courageous regional leader fighting against U.S. imperialism, rather than as a beleaguered demagogue trying to impose a dictatorship.

In his speech Sunday, Chávez cast Venezuela as a victim of ''Mr. Bush's interventionist, invading, colonialist government.'' Days later, Venezuela announced that it would call for an urgent Organization of American States meeting to condemn ''the American intervention in Haiti'' and alleged U.S. efforts to oust Venezuela's democratically elected government.

It's the old David vs. Goliath card, which Cuba's Fidel Castro has been successfully playing for the past four decades. And at a time when anti-Americanism in Latin America is at its highest levels in recent decades, Chávez thinks it's his best way to cling to power.

Third, by radicalizing his ''Bolivarian revolution,'' Chávez may be trying to provoke turmoil to have a pretext to impose martial law and rule by decree. He could do this through a ''self-coup,'' or simply by leading opposition leaders to conclude that they have no chance other than political violence.

''Venezuelans are fed up with violence, and whoever is seen as encouraging violence loses the game,'' says political analyst Graciela Roemer.

Will the Bush administration fall into Chávez's trap? So far, its coolest heads are prevailing. ''I've seen some of his comments, and I'm not just going to dignify them with a response from this podium,'' White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Wednesday.

But even well-placed Washington insiders say it is not clear whether this position will prevail.

There is growing evidence of Chávez support for Colombian guerrilla groups, and violent groups in Bolivia, Argentina and other South American countries. But the CIA has so far prevailed in keeping that information classified because of fears of new embarrassments such as the weapons of mass destruction fiasco after the Iraq war, well-placed Washington sources say.

The Bush administration and the Venezuelan opposition should avoid falling into Chávez's trap. If Chávez continues along the path of breaking democratic rule, the OAS and Carter Center observers should withdraw from Venezuela with a big splash, and deprive Chávez of his last claims to legitimacy.

Then, the United States should work with its Latin American and European allies -- especially with France, America's latest ally in the Haiti crisis -- to put pressure on Chávez to bring back the OAS and Carter Center observers and give them a supervisory role in the verification of the petition signatures being questioned.

In a U.S. vs. Venezuela war of words, Chávez would win. He knows that, and that's why he's raising the stakes.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The Chavez challenge

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

[Kakaze]

" Then, the United States should work with its Latin American and European allies -- especially with France, "

What ? At least the author waited until the end of the article for this nonsense.

And I thought a week ago Chavez called "Dubya" an A$$hole not a jerk.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Venezuela would stop oil to U.S. if invaded -Chavez (Chavez calls Bush an A--hole) ***"Mr. Bush must know that if he gets the mad idea of trying to blockade Venezuela, or, even worse, of invading Venezuela, if that happened, the people of the United States should know that not a drop of oil would reach them from Venezuela, not a drop more," Chavez told tens of thousands of cheering supporters.

Ties between Washington and Caracas have been badly strained by U.S. criticism of Chavez's rule, and his sharp condemnation of U.S. policies. But the Venezuelan government has always insisted it will remain a secure oil supplier to the United States.

In his speech, Chavez also called Bush an "asshole" for, he said, supporting a short-lived coup in 2002 that briefly toppled him. ***

[fire_eye]

Here's a chance for Lon Horiuchi to start trying to redeem himself.

[DB]

Venezuela elected the mad man, let them get rid of him.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Oil-rich Venezuela could end up like Haiti or maybe Cuba***The violence stems from the inability of the opposition to get a recall election off the ground. Twice they have collected the millions of signatures required for the recall, and twice the signatures have been invalidated on technicalities by pro-Chavez election authorities.

Chavez, a former military coup leader, was elected by a wide margin in 1998 and then was re-elected after a plebiscite that reformed the constitution. But his government has since been accused of becoming corrupt, authoritarian and repressive.

His close relationship with Cuban leader Fidel Castro has led thousands to flee in fear that he might be leading the country toward a Cuban-style dictatorship. Chavez vows to stay in power until 2012, confident that he will win yet another re- election.

The U.S. government denies Chavez's accusations that it was behind a coup attempt against him in 2002, but President Bush has now publicly expressed his support for the opposition's effort to hold a recall election. Chavez's reaction has been to attack Bush, calling him an illegitimate president and challenging his tenure: "Let's see who will last longer Bush in the White House or me in Miraflores (the Venezuelan presidential palace).'

Aristide did not resort to rhetoric or verbal confrontation with world leaders, as Chavez has. But his pleas for help in controlling the incessant violence were ignored. His inability to work with opposing forces made him lose credibility and the support of the international community.

In Venezuela, the Organization for American States and the Carter Center for Democracy have been trying to mediate between the opposing factions, but the country remains polarized.

The Bush administration does not hide its disdain for Chavez, much the same way it criticized Aristide up until the day he headed out of Haiti on a flight to Africa.

But removing democratically elected Chavez from office will be a much more difficult task. Venezuela will probably not be the next Haiti, but if something is not done soon, it could end up being the next Cuba.***

[Brian Allen]

b<< In a U.S. vs. Venezuela war of words, Chávez would win. >>

In his wildest and most delusionally-hesperophobic fantasies, he would.

United States of America's President and Armed Forces commander-In-Chief, George Walker Bush, can say more in any ten words than a Chavez or a Castro -- or a Gore, a Blythe, a Rodham or a Just a Gigolo, Heinz Kerry can say in a five hour projectile vomit.

Or in one.

"Underestimate," for example.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I'm sure Bush is studying the strategry.

[AUH2OY2K]

Chavez gave over a three hour speech. What is it with these leftest tyrants? Longer isn't better, in the case of speeches. Chavez, Castro et al full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Our President is protecting the world from terrorism and Chavez is trying to incite GWB to preserve his control over Venezuela? Like all leftists, Chavez belongs in the annals of history as a two bit corrupt leader.

[Skwidd]

Venezuela elected the mad man, let them get rid of him.

Hear, hear! No American lives for the freedom of foreigners!

[tbpiper]

Here's a chance for Lon Horiuchi to start trying to redeem himself.

Unless Chavez is holding a baby, I'm not sure Lon's aim is up to it.

[LibLieSlayer]

I agree with you 100%! I am sick and tired of all of the down spinning the media play against President Bush. Inarticulate? Hell no, he is not!!!! The problem for leftists and "others" is that they are so used to "Klinton-speak", that when they hear the English language spoken in a very clear and concise form, see his words born into fruition, and statements backed up by facts, they just can't get their minds "around" it...

E-ff the left baby, and e-ff the sewer-lords of the third world!!!

President Bush said, "You are either with us, or against us". NOTHING has changed our President's doctrine, and none of this political rhetoric is going un-noticed. ALL of our enemies will pay before this is over. They will not ALL pay using the SAME currency however!

I would almost bet that the Fed's have a nice warm cell right next to Noriega that Chavez would enjoy!

LLS

[John Jorsett]

Why don't we just "kidnap" him like we did Aristide?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Oh that would be the story. And when Castro meets his maker, it will be the evil U.S. embargo that did him in.

[Puddleglum]

Venezuela elected the mad man, let them get rid of him.

Them, and their Latin American neighbors. They need to find some concensus and backbone. Uncle Sam is the rich uncle they love to hate - send checks but keep your distance. If the US ever took action, it would be best to do so in conjunction with our Central and South American allies, in order to help shake the old US stereotype that tyrants like Chavez like to exploit.

[Barset]

My friends in Caracas have been telling me for months of the Cubans arriving by the thousands. The planes carrying them land at closed off areas at Simon Bolivar aeroport
and La Chinita airport in Maracaibo.

They believe the figure is over 100,000 Cuban troops right now "filling in" spaces in the guardia nacional and regular army.

Chavez's long time infatuation with Castro (he supplied oil to a credit hungry Cuba with payments postponed for twenty-five years) is celebrated with posters and signs by Chavez's opponents. The least insulting shows Chavez in drag and the words "Hugocita, La Primera Dama de Cuba."

The Cubans have instituted their own "revolutionary block guards" in Venezuela, the Bolivarian Circles, Cubans moving into neighborhoods training people to spy on neighbors, intimidating and silencing them.

Chavez apes Castro by broadcasting speeches all day long droning on for hours.

Castro should have been removed years ago. Now he controls the second largest army in this hemisphere. With the military colonization of Venezuela Castro will control the oil, and be poised at the top of South America to infiltrate and dominate all of it.

Castro does have biological and chemical weapons produced by his own scientists. In May of 2002 he visited Iran and declared "Iran and Cuba can bring the United States to its knees."

The Carter Center is a joke, the Organization of American States exists to protect the traditional Latin American oligarchy of the wealthy, the army, and the third leg of the stool used to be the Roman Catholic Church, but is now probably the Marxists-Leninists "peace now" groups heavily funded by outside sources including US taxpayers through foreign aid, including, I would guess, the Carter Center.

Most of the foreign oil companies have pulled their staffs out after Chavez slapped 25% additional business fees on them. Small factories that supplied the oil company workers with safety gear have closed. No oil workers working.

This month's Forbes Magazine lists its annual world's richest people. Castro's personal wealth is listed at
150 million dollars. (Even those friendly to Castro consider this a low-ball figure.)

After Castro's takeover of Venezuela it will be interesting to see where he will be on Forbes list next year.

[alwaysconservative]

Two words about Venezuela's threat to withhold oil to the US: drill ANWR. If President Bush pushed for immediate legislation for this based on the instability of the oil resources from Venezuala and Saudi Arabia, he would probably seal up Alaska for Lisa Murkowski, AND garner a significant part of the union vote, AND have a good PR moment in showing how many great-paying jobs would be created.

From this article, let me try to get this straight: even Venezualan dictators think we should have stayed out of Haiti's problems, while JF'nK and the Black Congressional Caucus think we should have (again) propped up Aristide, with troops if necessary? And the author thinks Chavez will win with Bush when Saddam, OBL, Arafat, Taylor, Aristide, and Qadafy have not? It would be laughable if it weren't so pathetic.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Good post. The information on the ground would fit what I've been posting. Chavez isn't just a hot head dictator, he has been groomed to be the Communist leader around which Latin America will rally. This is no time for the U.S. to turn away.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Like Saddam, Chavez doesn't believe we would move on him, even though he supports our enemies and is most definately against us.

[Tijeras_Slim]

Somebody should tell Hugo that this isn't a how-to manual.