[HHFi]

I write a topical humor service for radio, so I read and write about news for a living and have been doing so for about 13 years. I can assure you that polls this far out are absolutely meaningless. They're so pointless, we have a standing rule that we don't even bother to write jokes about them. (I remember after the '88 Dem Convention, when some polls had Dukakis ahead of Bush by double digits.)

As I've pointed out on these boards before, at this point, Kerry is the very embodiment of the "unknown Democrat" who always pulls about half the vote in every poll, then falls like a rock when someone who's actually known gets plugged into the hole. I'd remind you that two months ago, we were being told that polls showed Howard Dean with a staggering amount of support. Then people took their first look at him and -- YEEAAAAUUUGH!! -- it was all over. Soon, they'll be forced to take a look at Kerry, examine his sorry record and listen to his narcotically boring speeches, and the balloon will quickly deflate. Of course, the "objective" media will do everything they can to pump it back up, but not even they have that much hot air.

[DefCon]

My thoughts are that the nation has become so polarized
that 45% of the vote goes democrat no matter who's name
is on the ballot, and 45% of the vote goes republican
no matter who's name is on the ballot.

The game is being played for the soft 10% in the middle.
And ask yourself, who is it at this point in time, that
has not already chosen sides? I personally know of no one
that does not already know how they will vote in November
no matter who's names are on the ballot.

Turning the 10% middle and 'energizing the base' (voter turnout)
are the only two factors effecting the results in November.