I don't know about that. Look how artfully the Pubbies dodged the assault weapons ban extension bill the other day. Don't think for a minute Karl Rove wasn't twisting arms to the breaking point to get a 90-8 avalanche to kill that bill.
You ask me, John Kerry is a train wreck waiting to happen. He's going up against a $150 million Bush war chest. No wonder GWB signed campaign finance reform. His war chest is filled to bursting whether campaign finance gets reformed or not.
If Kerry doesn't get buried under the weight of all the media blitzes that money can buy, you can bet he'll be torpedoed by Bill Clinton. Just think what a monkeywrench it would throw into Hillary's '08 campaign if Kerry won.
I don't think Kerry stands a chance in November.
There are Two people who might undermine this financial calculation all by themselves: George Soros, and Teresa Heinz. They can outspend GWB and the whole GOP six ways from sunday. Will they? Will they risk FEC violations to do it? We know the FEC never fazed the Clintons. Heck, the FBI didn't faze the Clintons. They put in their people, and ran roughshod over all the rules. Witness the mockery over at the EEOC and the Civil Rights Commission that Clinton appointees still dominate.
Then, there is the fact that we still have to fight the force of political gravity...i.e., the continued co-option of the major media by the Harvard and Columbia-'educated' liberals and radicals...dare we say communists and fellow-travellers? The largest newspapers, and the broadcast television media: CBS's Walter Cronkite (I thought he retired...pity that boat of his doesn't sink with him in it), Dan Rather (Kronk's handpicked successor) and ABC's Jennings come out of the 'closet' more each day...and NBC's Brokaw's little anti-conservative tirade just two months ago was rather extremist too...
As a consequence, I am always amazed when we win anything. And I am equally sure that these people are flummoxed when we do. Witness Dan Rather's meltdown in 2000 along with Peter Jennings CRYING for pete's sake. UnBiassed news coverage my eye. Nobody is enforcing accountability for their bias...i.e. 'transparency' via full disclosure. Just never. We still have brazen enemy blowhards like Donohue claiming there is a Conservative Bias in the media. And Reed Irvine of AIM has passed on.
All that being said...I sure hope you're right. I am really scared that GWB will continue on his left-ward drift, and even if he survives it...the rest of the conservatives in the Party won't...and hence the Party itself won't. [I.e., the 'Wedge' politics Karl Rove has been implementing are incurring far more 'blowback' in the GOP base, than making any progress against the RAT base].
GWB will then be staring at two branches of Congress in enemy hands. It was bad enough when they had a tie.