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My serious guess as to what really happened is in the middle. My uneducated guess is that US military came to his palace and basically told Aristide that he was screwed. They would not be able to stop a full scale rebel assault, and that there would be a bloody fight even if they could. They told him he had a choice. Either most likely die in the violence, or pack up his crap and come with them. He chose to go with them, and then had buyer's remorse when he got out of dodge. This sounds like a probable scenario to me. I think the dims are pushing Aristide to stir up a stink.