Jonesing for the Senate: Can Bill Jones knock out Barbara Boxer?

National Review Online ^ | March 01, 2004 | John J. Miller

[nickcarraway]

Besides that, have you seen how the GOP is ``organized'' in this state? Have you been ton different central committee meetings? They are terrible and manage to raise a pittance.

[Thud]

WSOG,

Spin, hell. My father told me before the 1994 election exactly what he'd do with Wilson's anti-immigrant insanity, and afterwards he went out and persuaded Panetta to do it. The Clinton Administration poured federal money into immigrant naturalization in California 1995-96, and had the DNC register almost all of them as Democrats here. Look at the before and after 1994 statistics!

By your logic, Clinton's anti-terrorism policy was a flaming success. 9/11 didn't happen on his watch and it is only conservative spin that blames him for 9/11.

Denial is a river in California too. That's why the GOP here is the success it is today.

[Thud]

One of my friends from law school days is the long-time deputy chairman of the Marin County Democratic Central Committee, and constantly tells me of their woes. My favorites are the times he's had to take over as interim chairman because the incumbent did illegal things with the treasury.

OTOH, the Marin County Republican party is dead, dead, dead. The Greens are the Democrats' only effective opposition in Marin, and there are a growing number of California counties like that.

[Thud]

Schwarzenegger could not have won a GOP statewide primary as a non-incumbent because he is most definitely a RINO by loser California GOP standards. That's why he won the recall. I'm a RINO too by loser standards, as an old-line Scoop Jackson Democrat. The Democratic party left me - I didn't leave them.

Getting back to the point of Boxer, IMO Jones is the only GOP candidate with the name recognition to have any chance in the general election, and I don't think he can win. Jones is our best and he's not good enough.

We desperately need some winners in the down-ballot statewide races before we'll have a chance with the U.S. Senate. You can't beat somebody with nobody.

[pointsal]

Kaloogian has a better story line than Bill Jones. Unfortunately, Bill has simply missed his ship for future political jobs.

[heleny]

Thanks for the ping!

Two initiatives that may appear on the November ballot may influence the Senate campaign if Jones wins tomorrow:

• Save187.com -- the new initiative to limit certain public benefits that illegal aliens currently receive. This was a winning issue with broad appeal in CA ten years ago (prop 187) and still is today.
  
  
• an initiative to amend and weaken the Three Strikes Law. Remember, Bill Jones is credited with writing the original 3 Strikes law (prop 184), so he would probably oppose this initiative. Who knows if Boxer has an opinion yet.

[nickcarraway]

Well, isn't that the more serious problem. Whether candidate A or B wins the primary, what different does it make if there is no party at the local level.

[nickcarraway]

I think Scoop Jackson would be on the right of the GOP today.

[heleny]

Those 2 initiatives are summarized on the Secretary of State's website and available in full text (pdf) on the Attorney General's website:

1014. (SA03RF0048).
Public Benefits. Driver's License. Eligibility. Immigration Status and Identity Verification. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_j.htm#1014
http://www.caag.state.ca.us/initiatives/pdf/sa2003rf0047amdt1_s.pdf (PDF 1.69mb/ 22 pages)

1015. (SA03RF0047, Amdt. #1-S).
Limitations on "Three Strikes" Law. Sex Crimes. Punishment. Initiative Statute.
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_j.htm#1015
http://www.caag.state.ca.us/initiatives/pdf/sa2003rf0048_amdt_1_ns.pdf (PDF 169k/ 4 pages)

[heleny]

Oops, I messed that up! Here's the corrected version

Those 2 initiatives are summarized on the Secretary of State's website and available in full text (pdf) on the Attorney General's website:

1014. (SA03RF0048).
Public Benefits. Driver's License. Eligibility. Immigration Status and Identity Verification. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_j.htm#1014
http://www.caag.state.ca.us/initiatives/pdf/sa2003rf0048_amdt_1_ns.pdf (PDF 169k/ 4 pages)

1015. (SA03RF0047, Amdt. #1-S).
Limitations on "Three Strikes" Law. Sex Crimes. Punishment. Initiative Statute.
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_j.htm#1015
http://www.caag.state.ca.us/initiatives/pdf/sa2003rf0047amdt1_s.pdf (PDF 1.69mb/ 22 pages)

[WOSG]

"Schwarzenegger could not have won a GOP statewide primary as a non-incumbent because he is most definitely a RINO by loser California GOP standards."

" That's why he won the recall. "

That is poor logic. He couldnt do X, so that makes him able to do Y. It doesnt compute. The fact that Arnold is more electable in the General election is interesting, but that doesnt preclude him winning a primary. just because Riordan lost to Simon - when he should have lost, he was running an awful campaign - doesnt mean highly electable republicans who are RINOs cant win primaries; the question is how much scruples do you throw overboard? Yet if anything, the GOP moderates have gotten most of the election nods in Cali and have really FAILED to deliver. And that is the real message I am trying to give you: Running as a moderate is NOT THE WAY TO DEFEAT LIBERALS. Wishy-washy country-club types (think the awful Michael Huffington campaign) are terrible at generating the energy needed to win. Low-income social conservatives have no reason to vote for the country clubbers and so they fail to deliver a key part of the GOP coalition. It breaks down; the GOP loses. Liberalism wins.

The exception? Celebrity candidates like Arnold.

How to get out of the GOP rut? The Solution is the Reagan Formula. He started in California and it would still work there, even with the changed demographics. Positive embracing pro-freedom and solid conservative positions, wrapped in a warm and inviting persona. There needs to be both social and economic conservative elements, and it must be an optimistic tolerant and open one to win in Cali; Pat Buchanan-types need not apply. (But this does *not* mean go open borders pro-gay marriage and social liberalism!)

You think Bill Simon did bad? Or Boxer's 1992 opponent? Solid Conservatives but they got closer to winning than many other statewide candidates in recent election cycles.

The other way is to end up being water carriers for the liberals. Do we really need Arnold to do the yoemans work of being the debt manager of the last 5 years of over-spending? I'm not in Cali, but if I was I'd be voting NO on those propositions. Turn off the spigot and cut spending. Now!

" Getting back to the point of Boxer, IMO Jones is the only GOP candidate with the name recognition to have any chance in the general election, and I don't think he can win. Jones is our best and he's not good enough."

If Jones lacks the 'Elvis' that's one thing, but Boxer barely won in 1992, the 'year of the woman', she's is far weaker as a candidate, person and legislator compared with DiFi. Boxer got a pass in 1998 with a bad campaign. Boxer CAN be taken out. imho its defeatist to say Jones cant do it right out of the gate ... there are 60/40 issues he could run on, like immigration, but he has to be bold and run on differences, not mush.

"We desperately need some winners in the down-ballot statewide races before we'll have a chance with the U.S. Senate. " ... whoa, that was Jones a few cycles back.

Win races. Good strategy. But let's at least try at the Senate level. :-)

[Thud]

Jones is boring. Boxer isn't. She may be a lot of other things, but boring isn't one of them. I admit Simon wasn't boring either, but it was the horrid fascination of a good car crash.

[ladyinred]

I certainly hope so. I think if the rest of the state gets to know him as we from his local area do, he will win. I am just hoping he can get his message out with a hostile media pushing for Boxer. This is one great guy this Bill Jones.

[CPT Clay]

Has the Govornator done any fundraisers for Jones now that he is the candidate?

I believe that if 50,000 people gave him $1000 Bill Jones might have a chance.

[nickcarraway]

Jones needs Bush to win by a safe margin. If it's clear early enough that Bush is going to win, it will supress Boxer voters in California.

[Carry_Okie]

Has the Govornator done any fundraisers for Jones now that he is the candidate?

From what I've heard so far, the CA-GOP has hung him out to dry. Jones has shown himself to be a poor fundraiser.

Given that Ahnold endorsed Jones, one would think he would want to demonstrate that such an endorsement carried weight both in the CAGOP and publicly. At this point, one wonders whether Ahnold wants to show that he has coat-tails or not.

[CPT Clay]

Why nominate anybody if you are just going to hang them out to dry? The CA GOP is a bunch of losers. MR. Jones should have had at least 2 fundraisers a week since being nominated. The recall was a political earthquake last year. It should be built upon. Boxer is underfunded at this point. she should have 50 Million in the bank by this time just like Shumer.