Standard Disclaimer One:
As predicters of voter behavior in November, polls in February are meaningless.
Standard Disclaimer Two:
We will NEVER know which pollsters correctly called the 2000 election because the election results were skewed by the media's early call of Florida for Gore [This call came BEFORE polls closed in Florida and in the SouthWest/West, suppressing Republican turn out in ALL of the aforementioned areas. Most pundits now agree that this early call cost President Bush the popular vote and several electoral votes!]
NOTE: While we will NEVER know who made the best call in the 2000 election, we do know that Zogby -- the 'superstar' of the 2000 election -- blew most of his predictions for the 2002 elections (particularly the gubernatorial race in Florida)!
TWO POINTS:
1.) Two-day 'snap shot' polls are UNRELIABLE measures of public opinion [MOST Gallup polls, ALL FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics polls, ALL Newsweek polls, ALL CBSNews polls, SOME ABCNews/WashingtonPost polls (including the most recent/heavily publicized poll) AND MOST Quinnipiac polls are two-day quickies!].
Conversely, polls conducted over multiple days -- with accurate 'weighting' procedures -- are infinitely more VALID [ALL Rasmussen polls, ALL Annenberg polls, MOST Zogby polls, and SOME Ipsos-Reid polls are conducted over multiple days with LARGER than average samples -- typically, larger samples yield lower margins of error!]
2.) Rasmussen's recent polling results closely track results gleaned by the following pollsters:
ZOGBY
2/12-15/04
Likely Voters/MOE +/- 2.8
GWB Approval Ratings:
Red States -- 55% Excellent/Good
(translates to an approval rating proximating 60%)
Blue States-- 47% Excellent/Good
Head-to-Head Match-up:
Red States -- GWB 51% Kerry 39% (+12)
Blue States -- GWB 46% Kerry 47% (-1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=808 ANNENBERG
2/11-19/04
Adults/MOE +/- 2
GWB Approval Rating
55% approve 42% disapprove (+13)
over 60% believe the President is a strong leader
44% disapprove of Kerry's antiwar activities
40% approve
62% believe that President Bush fulfilled his National Guard responsibilities
38% do not
17% who disapprove of Kerry's antiwar activities also indicate that this disapproval will matter a 'great deal' when they vote in November
12% who said President Bush shirked his NG responsibilities also said this would matter a 'great deal' when they vote in November
http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_guard-and-vietnam_02-20_pr.pdfPolls are worthless and easy to buy as well.
CG