Post-Ky., S.D. takes GOP’s center stage

thehill.com ^ | 02/24/04 | Lauren Shepherd

[floriduh voter]

bttt from S. Dakotan for life.

[JohnnyZ]

He's about 45, and seems energetic enough from what I can see, but SoDak's a long ways away and it's about time to switch to a new pair of (disposable) contacts

[SoDak]

I believe Larry is in the latter half of his 40's. In his case, a slight graying will probably help him and hurt her. He appears as the archetype east-river farmer. The polls reflect NO name recognition for Diedrich. Once he gets his story out, I think things will turn quickly. Hopefully Gov Rounds will help him out too, with his 90's approval rating.

[GiveEmDubya]

I have no idea. All depends on what Congress wants to do with it (or what Bush wants to do with it).

[KQQL]

her money is coming from:


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To help keep track of online contributions, some blog owners have suggested the following additions to let us know they are coming from their readers:

Calpundit readers add $.15
Daily Kos readers add $.01
EdCone.com readers add $.13
Eschaton readers add $.18
The Hamster readers add $.04
Instapundit readers add $.03
pandagon.net readers add $.07
Political Wire readers add $.09
Seeing the Forest readers add $.02
Talk Left readers add $.11
Talking Points Memo readers add $.22
Yellow Dog Blog readers add $.36
http://www.hersethforcongress.org/blog04.htm

[KQQL]

Helping Seniors with the Cost of Prescription Drugs. I am encouraged that Congress has seen the need to add a prescription drug benefit under Medicare. However, I support changes to the new law that will preserve the Medicare system and that will do more for seniors, particularly rural seniors, than for pharmaceutical and insurance companies.
==
more spending....

[SoDak]

Oh yeah, she knows old people vote. Not all of them are fooled though, a lot of my mom's friends, all in their 60's and 70's, think she's condescending. My mom is a one woman campaign force in her town, after I got her politically engaged in 2000.

[KQQL]

bad news foe rats

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"It is wrong to write discrimination into the U.S. Constitution and it is shameful to use attacks against gay and lesbian families as an election strategy," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "It appears that the conservative compassion he promised to deliver in 2000 has now officially run out," McAuliffe added

[Dems_R_Losers]

I just talked to someone who was very involved in the Kentucky race (it's my home district) and he said what the Dems did was identify 35,000 Democrats who hate President Bush and they got every single one of them to the polls. Turnout was HUGE. They also spent a lot of money on direct mail to Democrats and on large ads in small town papers, while of course the Republicans spent everything on TV. The NRCC totally blew that election and now they are making excuses that Chandler had better name ID and Kerr couldn't catch up. That's a load of BS. So I expect a similar result in South Dakota.

[ColoradoDakota]

Herseth is particularly vulnerable on abortion. She is one of the key endorsees of Emily's List (and NOW). However, you will look in vain on her site for her views on the issue. Small wonder given the very pro-life vote in this very Catholic and Lutheran state.

Two things might flush this issue out: (1) Currently an anti-abortion bill is making its way through the SD Senate and it has already passed the House. Politicians will be forced to make a stand. (2) The highest Catholic in the state - Bishop Carlson of the Sioux Falls - is already on record about Roman Catholics and abortion and will most likely reiterate this position. This will not be helpful to the CINO (Catholic in name only) Daschle.

[ColoradoDakota]

Bill Janklow burned many bridges in his long tenure in SD. I can attest to "Janklow fatigue". He was an arrogant and self-consumed character (who also happened to do a LOT of good things for my former state) and he grew tiresome. He created much ill will in 1986 when he ran in the primary against incumbent senator Abdnor, who, in turn, was weakened and lost to Daschle by 5,000 votes.

Herseth was the fresh face; a change from the face of Janklow, in 2003.

But Larry Diedrich is also a fresh face and will be an excellent candidate. His agricultural background is impeccable.

[JohnnyZ]

her money is coming from:

I doubt that much money is generated from blogs. Chandler was bragging about raising $40,000 from blogs. Whoopee.

[ColoradoDakota]

Kerr was not the greatest candidate. Let's face it. Chandler had overwhelming name recognition (and the Chandler name going back to his gf Happy Chandler is storied) AND Kerr had a VERY short time line to overcome that.

Herseth also has strong name recognition and a famous South Dakota name (her gf was Governor, her gm held a constitutional office, her father - Lars - was a high-ranking state Senator) BUT Larry Diedrich has over 3 months to overcome this. Remember, that although South Dakota is a geographically large state, the vast majority of people tune into the TV stations from just two markets - Sioux Falls and Rapid City. The name Larry Diedrich will be known - trust me on that.

[ColoradoDakota]

Diedrich is a college-educated farmer with international ag experience. I am hard-pressed to think of the last farmer who represented SD in D.C. Perhaps Clint Roberts who won in 1980. Anyway, Diedrich will hit this HARD and it WILL have appeal from the many Republican farmers who have been Daschle voters in the past because Daschle brings home the pork.

Another thing about Herseth is she is seen by many as an opportunistic carpetbagger. She chose not to go to college there, nor grad school and then worked in a DC law firm. She only returned to SD to run for the 2002 Congressional seat.

She's a single, pro-abortion, post-feminist, Georgetown-dwelling, beltway-working lawyer.

Compare to Diedrich. Went to the state's largest university - South Dakota State U. - and built up the family farm while raising his large family. Here's what his website states:

"Larry and his wife Jackie have been married for 21 years and have four children, Joshua, Brandi, Christopher and Mikkail. Larry and Jackie have shared their home with two foster daughters and two foreign exchange students. Larry attended Elkton High School and South Dakota State University, graduating with an animal science degree in 1979. Before returning to the farm in 1982, Larry was a district sales manager for Cargill Seeds in Illinois. Serving the public has been a focal point for Larry's activities off the farm. He has held state and national leadership positions in various organizations representing agriculture, his church and the state of South Dakota."

[ColoradoDakota]

Last one (I promise).

Lost in the conventional wisdom of Democratic strength in the state of South Dakota is that almost every statewide office is held by Republicans (Gov., Lt. Gov., AG, etc.), both houses of the legislature are controlled by the Republicans and the GOP has well over a 10% registration advantage. The GOP's strength is in its county organizations and they are STRONG. There will be no schisms in supporting Diedrich as there was with Janklow.

The Dems strength, incongruously and unfortunately, is limited to the two US Senate seats. (My theory is the rational thinking that Dems are more adept and guileless of bringing home pork.)

Also, the last time that a Democrat was a Congressman was 8 years ago when Tim Johnson gave up his seat to run for Senate.

A prior posting from FR by fieldmarshaldj, on 8/22/03, was encyclopedic on this:


"Until 1983, SD had 2 House seats, divided east and west. Republicans Ben Reifel (an American Indian) and E.Y. Berry both decided to retire in 1970, and embarrassingly, we lost both seats to 'Rats Jim Abourezk and Frank Denholm. The badly incapacitated GOP Sen. Karl Mundt was unable to run for reelection in '72 and Abourezk took his seat. In 1972, the former Lieutenant-Governor, Jim Abdnor, took back the Berry (Abourezk) seat that year. Denholm lost for a 3rd term in '74 to [Republican] Larry Pressler (which actually was a good year for the GOP in SD, we almost knocked off McGovern with POW Leo Thorsness and a 35-year old Bill Janklow won the 'Rat held Attorney-General's office and we came close to knocking off Dick Kneip for his 3rd term). Abdnor deferred to Pressler as Abourezk embarrassingly (for him) was forced to retire (as I mentioned Kneip did early) in '78, but remained a thorn in his side for the next 20 years spreading all sorts of obscene rumors about Pressler (including the infamous gay rumors). Alas, Pressler's seat went to Tom Daschle who beat Leo Thorsness by a very questionable margin (around 100 votes, if I remember) and when Abdnor vacated and the seat went to GOP newbie Clint Roberts in '80, Roberts and Daschle had to run statewide against each other when the state went to one House seat. Had it been '80, Roberts might've beaten him, but '82 was a bad GOP year, and Daschle prevailed. From 1983-97, Daschle and his successor, Tim Johnson, held the lone House seat. When Thune won in '96, he had been the first GOPer since '80 with Clint Roberts to win a House seat. So from 1971-97, aside from '75-'79, the 'Rats have occupied either one of the old two seats or the At-Large one."

[Meldrim]

Yes, Senator Abdnor was a good man. I never did get the full story on why Janklow decided to challenge him.

[buckalfa]

The South Dakota race could validate fears I have that the
GOP could lose one or both houses of Congress this November.
Despite the facts behind the issues, I feel there is a
very real hatred for Bush among the hard core Democrats,
and that hatred just may be channeled into donations and
voter turnout drives that will catch the GOP napping in
state elections while Rove and company devote their
resources to saving the Bush presidency. The golden
opportunity derived from the 2002 elections may be lost
by the GOP due to sheer arrogance.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Diedrich has to hit Herseth on the head on abortion. He has to let everyone know that she's a pro-abortion liberal. Once voters are aware of this, Herseth will drop like a rock in the polls, and it will all be about turnout in the general election.

[GiveEmDubya]

Let's not forget, Janklow apparently has an ego the size of an Escalade. He's the top dog and he likes everyone to know it. A man lost his life because Janklow was being a pompous, law-breaking ass. There is no excuse for that. Hopefully Thune has learned a lot and will take Daschle out in November.

My dream night on November 2...

Bush wins early, Kerry outraged and makes a snippy concession speech, while Bush's victory speech is positive and chock full o' vision.

Republicans score Senate and House gains, Carville places large garbage can on head (again). This time, he leaves it there. We do better than expected in state and local races.

After failing to find enough Chief Red Sitting Bull (1845-1923)'s, Thune wins in South Dakota, and Daschle is deeply saddened to the nth degree in his concession. He starts to cry like a little girl on national television, and announces that after he leaves the Senate, he's going to have a sex change and move to Vancouver.

The plastic surgery work on Nancy Pelosi's face melts after her party dips under the 200 seat level for the first time in a VERY long time, and her face ends up looking like a mix between the Jason mask and Phyllis Diller.

Paul Begala's forehead explodes and covers Wolf Blitzer in ooze as he calls California for Bush.

Those are but a few things I would love to see in November. A few of them are actually possible!

[Clintonfatigued]

Fortunately, there is time for Diedrich to establish name identification and catch up in the polls. Alice Kerr didn't have that luxury.