I've been reading a lot of the gun forums of late, and it's apparent that Bush is in big trouble politically.
Basically, 25% of the posters have made up their mind to vote against Bush (third party), 25% will vote for him, and 50% are waiting to see what happens to the AWB.
Keep in mind, that last election, nearly 100% of these guys voted for Bush and many donated money or worked on his campaign.
Bottom line: If he signs it, he'll lose the election. If not, he still might lose.