[Coop]

There's really no point to belabor the matter beyond that.

I agree. But do keep in mind, the 2.x million jobs lost is only one measurement. The other - the household survey, which is rarely if ever mentioned by the media - shows a loss of only 200-300K IIRC. A huge discrepancy which should at the least be addressed by an objective [giggle] media.

[AntiGuv]

My personal view is that whichever of the two standards is a closer reflection of empirical economic reality will be the one that will better reflect what will happen for the upcoming election. Quite frankly, I don't personally know what to make of the household survey (yes, I'm aware of all the arguments involving the two reports) but I lean toward the payrolls report simply because President Bush's poll standings and perceptions of the economy suggest to me that it is the better reflection of the economic landscape.

That being said, if it is true that the household survey is the more representative and applicable of the two, then I think this will become quite clear by the time Election Day rolls around.

One other minor point, I am not predicting a Bush loss in November even if it appears that way from my remarks. In fact, my current projection has the Electoral College tied at 269-269 if the election proves closely competitive, and so I would assume the Republican House would put Bush back in office. Moreover, I have many more states that I think likely to move from Kerry toward Bush than from Bush toward Kerry from that current baseline.

A lot can and will happen. At the present time, neither a 40 state Bush victory nor a 35 state Kerry victory would especially surprise me (though the latter more so).

[WOSG]

It is almost certainly the case that the household survey is the more accurate one during economic turnarounds like we have now.