Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Ten

Various

[jwalsh07]

I think you guys are missing the boat on NH. The most important issue in NH is income taxes, they hate them. Yeah, it's next door to Kerry's stomping ground but what you guys don't realize is the ingrained animus between NH folk and MAss folk. Its actually pretty amusing and while their has been an influx of Mass reidents to NH, the reason for that influx is, you guessed it, taxes.

[edwin hubble]

"N: slight leans Kerry, No way W wins....... "

I think that's a typo.
"N" ... could you re-post that line?

[SC Swamp Fox]

Yes, but Bush would need FL, WV, MO and OH to reach the tie. The only "GOP leaning" state to Kerry was NH, the rest are "toss ups".

This could be close...

or we could have OBL's head on a pike and/or the economy charging ahead and Bush wins in a land-slide.

It's only February and the GOP hasn't even started to spend money. This should be okay.

[KQQL]

Bush has better chance to win NV in 04, then NH
277-4

[Torie]

Regarding Ohio, we will have to see how the economy plays out, and the class angst issue plays out. Ohio is the premier state for manufacturing. The place makes tangible things, not intangible things. McKinley might not recognize California, but he would certainly recognize his home state, to this day.

[Torie]

I agree. Nevada will be a couple of more percent GOP than the nation. NH will not.

[Dan from Michigan]

I don't really believe in national trends, as I come from the 'politics is local' school.

I do think there was a lot of ticket splitting, and that the dems had strong candidates.

Stabenow ran once for governor(lost in primary), beat an incumbent for congress(my district before redistricting was about 51-49 dem), and is a strong campaigner. Mike Rogers(my rep now) is also a strong candidate and pulled off the win for the open seat in 2000. Redistricting was kind to him and his district is now about 52-53% republican.

Ben Nelson was elected statewide in Florida. Tom Carper was a governor(best type of candidate you can have). Carnahan was a governor, and Maria Cantwell has a ton of money.

[jwalsh07]

Thats good, my gut tells me that Iowa is trending toward Michigan. Any hope there? Hell, the last time I was in Dubuque was 30 years ago and the mills and factories were all closing then. But corn was booming. Don't they make ethanol from corn? LOL

[Torie]

I think the inarticute Texan bit is a drag in NH for Bush. Kerry needs to tone it down a bit however, to connect in NH. Of course he will, soon.

[KQQL]

I bet you today BUSH has easier time winning FL in 04 than he did in 04.
THERE IS NO LOSERMAN TO ATTRACT JEWISH AMERICAN VOTES, THIS TIME AROUND ....for Kerry...
+
FL Economy is doing good.....
----
If I were Kerry, I fight W in OH, NH , WV , MO and NV not FL, while keeping Sore's states from 00

[wylenetheconservative]

I agree. I think the dam could burst in Bush's favor, but not in Kerry's. I also think MN will be in the Bush column this time. MN & GA have been trending R, while AR & LA have been trending Rat.

[jwalsh07]

Kerry has Al Gore disease. He won't be able to hide the New England hubris. It doesn't even play well in New England. I'd imagine it woulld play less well in the battleground states.

But thats just MHO and you know as well as I that I my animus toward Mr Kerry is deep and long running. Hard to be objective actually. It was easier with Gore and Clinton.

[KQQL]

NM: slight leans Kerry, No way W wins.......
DEMOGraphics are screwed up in NM...


sorry for the typo.

[Torie]

Predicting Iowa at this point is the province of only a higher power. Frankly, while the place is so disgusting "normal," in so many ways, psephologically speaking, Iowa is just plain weird, and sui generis. But I think Bush's hawkish stance, probably makes him an underdog.

[KQQL]

W has a good shot @ winning MN...

However, I doubt W wins WI or MI

[wylenetheconservative]

Demographics have been screwed up in NM for a long time. Poor demographics aren't always a harbinger of defeat for GOP. MS is 37% black and reliably GOP in Pres elections. The bad demographics tend to polarize the white majority against the RATS. Even in California, if it weren't for all the homosexuals and counterculture whites in the Bay area, the state would be very competitive. Don't count NM out yet.

[Dan from Michigan]

What's scary is, that's an INCREDIBLY FEASIBLE outcome

As my map is now(286 W, 252 Kerry) if I'm right on every state except Michigan, we have a tie.

Of the 'battleground states'(where I expect a good fight) - I have Oregon, Wash St, Nevada(somewhat of an upset), Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, West Va, Maine(both districts), and New Hampshire going dem.

And New Mex, Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia(sleeper), Ohio, and Michigan(my other upset) going GOP.

If it's Edwards, I expect it even tougher.

[KQQL]

In MS most whites vote Republican in a Federal Elections, however in NM that's not the case.

[jwalsh07]

I agree with #77, Ohio just passed the toughest DOMA law in the nation. Hard to believe that doesn't tip a couple of points W's way.

[wylenetheconservative]

IA is another great example of how the demographics game can be misleading. A state that is 94% white would seem to be a shoe-in for Bush. But anytime a place lacks a set of minorities for the RATS to pander to, the majority is not polarized against the RAtS, and it becomes more difficult for the GOP.