Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight

I am a resident of Indiana, and I can explain the trends. 'Rat strength in Indiana is slowly growing, though it's still a Republican state. First of all, the Gary-East Chicago-Michigan City areas are 'Rat strongholds. Second, the southern part of the state is socially conservative, but in economic straights. Third, and most important, is Indianapolis. Lots of recent college graduates are moving into Indianapolis for white-collar jobs, many from southern Indiana. Most of them are single, concentrating on their careers, and not family-oriented. At the same time, many middle-class, two-parent families with children are leaving the city. This is especially prouounced among families with stay-at-home mothers and families whose fathers own their own businesses. Partly as a result, social conservatives are losing ground there, and 'Rats who campaign as moderates who balance budgets, fight crime, and are friendly to economic growth are winning more elections. If Evan Bayh is Kerry's running mate, than I believe Indiana is very much in play.

The Nader intervention won't affect things much -- most of his support comes in states with wide Dem margins to begin with. The "battleground states" include West Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Florida (all states where MoveOn.org is already reported to be spending money targeting Bush). Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey are the most important in terms of size and # of electoral votes. However, NJ is "lost" -- it is the demographics (the state is literally being overrun by immigrants -- by the hundreds of thousands within each election cycle). Michigan and Ohio will be tough due to the economic conditions, while Florida will be THE TEST -- was the socialist drug program and pandering to illegals worth it?

I take that comment on Nader back! Too quick on the submit button. However, Nader is correct that many Dems will no longer vote for him in Florida, because they know what the consequences will be. Nader is clearly targeting REPUBLICANS, and could draw away some anti-Bush Republicans (he did get circa 25% of his votes in 2000 from registered Republicans).

Dales, I've got to tell you, while I'm happy that someone out there is pointing out that Bush could carry NJ in 2004, there is no way you can say it leans to Bush, even slightly, right now. If NJ leans to Bush, then so does DE and PA would be strongly in Bush's column (plus, NY would only lean Democrat and CT would slightly lean Dem). The forces at play that you (correctly) predict will help Bush do much better in NJ in 2004 than he did in 2000 will also help him in other suburban areas in the Northeast (and probably in West Coast and Midwest suburban areas as well). If Bush carries NJ, he will almost certainly get over 400 Electoral Votes (over 450 if he also wins California).

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