bin Laden spent years and many bucks building caves in Tora Bora. After he saw the Americans do a "Tora Tora Tora on Tora Bora", I am sure he is aware his hide is priority #1. Self-protection and escape routes are more important to him than pulling off the next terrorist attack. I find it highly unlikely that he would put himself in a position to be surrounded. He has studied Houdini; he must have an escape route. Like you, I will believe it when I see it.