[bluejay]

Tell me, where will America be in 20 years?

I recall the same question was asked in the 80s when trade imbalance with Japan was all the rage. While I am unable to say what will happen in the next 20 years, we certainly know what happened in the previous 20 years:

1980 per-capita income: $22,883
2003 per-capita income: $35,650
1980 USA World GDP share: 29.29%
2003 USA World GDP share: 31.09%
Inflation adjusted to 2000 USD. (Source: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/macroeconomics/)

1980 unemployment rate: 7.1%
2003 unemployment rate: 6.0%
1980 number employed: 99,303,000
2003 number employed: 137,735,667
Source: http://nidataplus.com/lfeus1.htm#annl

So, since the last trade/budget deficit scare, US added 38 million jobs, income went up by more the 50% and our share of world GDP increased.

[going hot]

You're are just trying to confuse people with facts. Stop it!
/sarcasm

[rocklobster11]

Good point! I've been thinking that this recent hysteria is alot like when we thought the Japanese were going to buy America in the early 80's (anyone remember that silly Michael Keaton movie about the auto industry?).

Outsourcing has been going on for decades, and outsourcing in the technology sector has been going on heavily for the past 6-7 years. All of the sudden, we are in an election cycle, and we're getting bombarded with doom and gloom predictions about outsourcing at an astounding rate. Perhaps the Dems are trying to talk down the economy?

[dark_lord]

1980 per-capita income: $22,883
2003 per-capita income: $35,650
Inflation adjusted to 2000 USD.
1980 unemployment rate: 7.1%
2003 unemployment rate: 6.0%

True, true. But consider 2 additional factors.
1st, taxes per capita are higher today. Yeah, Bush's tax cut helped - but it does not effect social security, medicare, state, sales, or real estate taxes. Just as an example, in Cook county in the Chicago metro, the real estate taxes typically run $5000 - $9500 per year for a single family home, with a sales tax running around 9% - 11% (variation depending on product or whether you are buying a meal).
2nd, we don't calculate unemployment rate today the same way it was calculated in 1980. Just as one example, in 1980 the military was not counted as "employed" in the statistics (they were excluded from the statistics) -- whereas today it is.

Therefore, even after adjusting for inflation, we are not comparing apples to apples. So the raw percentages are not as valid as they first appear.

[WOSG]

It is fascinating that our share of world GDP actually increased in the last 23 years despite all the howling about being taken over by others (in the 1980s it was Japan, in the 1990s, Asian tigers, now its China).