Posted on 02/20/2004 1:19:11 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
International observers are likely to leave Venezuela in the next few weeks, diplomats said on Thursday, as Hugo Chávez, president, creates further obstacles meant to block an opposition drive for a recall vote on his rule
Mr Chávez's opponents in December filed a petition with nearly 3.6m signatures demanding a presidential recall vote - 30 per cent more signatures than are required to trigger a referendum.
If a recall vote is held before August and Mr Chávez loses, as some opinion polls predict he would, fresh presidential elections would be required.
But the national electoral council (CNE) is already weeks behind schedule in deciding on the validity of the petition, in spite of the presence of observers from the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Carter Center [of the US.
Last week, the CNE, which is dominated by supporters of Mr Chávez, ruled that thousands of forms containing the signatures are invalid because of "irregularities", such as incorrectly positioned fingerprints.
Tens of thousands of other forms have also been shelved because the style of handwriting in the signatures does not match personal details. Most of these forms were filled by assistants but signed by the handicapped and the infirm.
The OAS and Carter Center warned the CNE not to dwell on minor technicalities and to respect the will of the people. But the CNE appears to be taking its cue from Mr Chávez, who insists the signature collection procedure was a "mega-fraud", testing the patience of the opposition and foreign observers.
Mr Chávez on Wednesday extended his verbal attacks on the opposition to the OAS, charging that it was itself failing to detect evidence of what he claims is a fraudulent plot to overthrow him orchestrated by George W. Bush, US president.
Diplomats said it was now only a matter of time before the OAS and the Carter Center walked away - if Mr Chávez did not expel them first.
"The observers are going to end up leaving," said a Latin American ambassador in Caracas. "The OAS and Carter Center are respectable institutions, and they are not going to endorse obvious inconsistencies and changes in the rules. . . And when the observers depart, the process will be delegitimised in the eyes of the international community," the diplomat said.
Even if observers do depart, there may be very little that the international community can do.
"Even though people may perceive that there is a lot of manipulation going on, Chávez will be able to retain a fig-leaf of legitimacy that will make it very difficult to take any more forceful action," said Michael Shifter, senior analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think-tank.
Within Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, it appears unlikely that opponents of Mr Chávez will accept lightly a decision that derails a referendum, likely prompting protests.
Some opposition parties warned this week they would boycott regional gubernatorial elections scheduled for August if the CNE does not allow the recall referendum to take place.
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