Iranian Alert -- February 20, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Syria and Iran Aiding Militants, Iraq Says

February 20, 2004
The Guardian
Michael Howard in Kirkuk

Senior Iraqi intelligence officers believe an Islamic militant group which has claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings in Irbil and a spate of deadly attacks in Baghdad, Falluja and Mosul is receiving significant help from Syria and Iran.

The officers, who have been tracking the activities of domestic and foreign jihadists in northern Iraq, claim that members of Jaish Ansar al-Sunna (the army of the supporters of the sayings of the prophet) have been "given shelter by Syrian and Iranian security agencies and have been able to enter Iraq with ease".

The group is suspected of training suicide bombers and deploying them against US forces in Iraq and Iraqis considered to be collaborating with the US-led authorities.

Jaish Ansar al-Sunna was one of a dozen Islamic militant organisations which issued a joint statement two weeks ago in Ramadi and Falluja warning Iraqis against cooperating with the occupation.

It distributed CDs carrying video footage of some of its operations, which included roadside bomb attacks on US military convoys.

US officials believe that since Saddam Hussein was captured in December the insurgency is being increasingly fought by Islamic guerrillas rather than former regime loyalists.

The emergence of Islamist extremist groups has added to the challenges faced by the occupation authorities and the local security forces.

While the Iraqi authorities are struggling to establish an effective intelligence operation in the centre and south of the country, in the north they have been able to build on the existing intelligence network in the Kurdish ruled area.

An intelligence officer in the northern city of Kirkuk said: "We have arrested a number of foreign Arabs that we believe may be connected to the global terror network.

"They all seemed to have Iranian or Syrian visas in their passports. A number of them told us they had received assistance in those countries."

He said Hassan Ghul, a suspected al-Qaida operative found to be carrying a document urging the fomenting of civil war in Iraq, had been arrested by Kurdish forces on the Iraqi side of the Iranian border near the town of Kalar.

The Americans have said the 17-page letter was written by Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian fugitive allegedly linked to Osama bin Laden.

Jaish Ansar al-Sunna is suspected of coordinating the infiltration of foreign militants - experienced terrorists and young footsoldiers - from Europe through Syria, the intelligence officer said.

"We are not talking huge numbers, perhaps 100 since the war, but that is too much," he said.

"We believe that there is a safe house for them near Damsacus. They are crossing the border west of Mosul, then heading for Mosul before dispersing to other cities."

He said Iran and Syria wanted to use the militant issue as a bargaining point in their relations with the US.

Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, said: "There are incidents of infiltration from the outside.

"I do not want to accuse anyone, but we are not getting sufficient cooperation from our neighbours.

"If they believe they can play with the security of Iraq, they are playing with fire. It's very dangerous."

Damascus and Tehran reject the allegation they are harbouring or facilitating jihadists and point to their increased cooperation with George Bush's global war on terror.

The Iraqi intelligence officers, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Jaish Ansar al-Sunna was believed to be a splinter group of Ansar al-Islam (supporters of Islam), an extreme Kurdish group with suspected links to al-Qaida.

The group's leader is identified on its website as Abu Abdullah al-Hassan bin Mahmoud, thought to be the brother of a leading Ansar al-Islam fighter.

Until the invasion of Iraq Ansar al-Islam controlled a string of villages high in the Zagros mountains near the Iranian border.

There it introduced Taliban-style rule and despised the secular governments of the two main parties in the Kurdish ruled area, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Jalal Talabani, and the Kurdistan Democratic party, led by Massoud Barzani, whose Irbil offices were attacked with synchronised suicide bombers on February 1.

A total of 109 people were killed and scores more injured in the attacks, the worst since the fall of Saddam.

Ansar al-Islam was ousted from its stronghold at the beginning of the war by a joint operation involving PUK peshmerga forces and US air power.

About 200 fighters fled to Iran, the intelligence official said.

They had now had time to reorganise and had been filtering back into Iraq, where they had joined Sunni Arab extremists to form the new group.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1152096,00.html

Growing Gulf Between Iranians and Their Leaders

February 20, 2004
NBC News
Preston Mendenhall

Iran -- At the pulpit of Friday's traditional prayers here, the slogan master warmed up the crowd with a familiar refrain. "Down with America! Down with Israel!" he chanted, readying several thousand mostly older Iranians for the main act, a sermon delivered by Ayatollah Ahamad Jannati, one of the country's hard-line leaders.

Across town, at the Computer Capital mall, Ali Reza Jafari, a 30-year-old computer technician, said he didn't see much wrong with America.

"I have an uncle in Tennessee and a cousin in California," said the 30-year-old with shoulder-length hair. "Iran needs relations with other countries."

Tehran's weekly prayer, and the capital's multiplying malls, offer a snapshot of this country's political and social complexity, as Iranians voted Friday in controversial parliamentary elections.

Under a tin-topped structure at the entrance to Tehran University's leafy campus, mullahs rail at the "colonizer" and "Great Satan" United States for interfering in the affairs of sovereign states around the world.

At the Computer Capital mall, a dozen stores owned and operated by a generation of Iranian twentysomethings sell the high-tech wares of the American devil: Dell, Apple, Palm and Hewlett Packard.

Rising population

More than half of Iran's population of 68 million is under the age of 25. The soaring birthrate was encouraged by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But today its consequences are haunting Khomeini's clerical successors.

Mostly unemployed and increasingly connected to the rest of the world by the Internet and satellite television, Iran's youth is restless. Born after the revolution, which toppled the U.S.-backed monarch, many say they have more in common with America than with Iran's aging mullahs.

"The economy is bad. No one wants to invest in Iran. All we can offer is oil, carpets and maybe caviar," complained computer expert Jafari, who supports is family on $200 a month.

Iran's youth was the engine behind reforms introduced by President Mohammed Khatami, elected in 1997. Then, and again in parliamentary elections in 2000, the young population turned out in droves to elect the charismatic Khatami, and a parliament of reformers.

But seven years into Khatami's rule, for many the pace of reform has been too slow. Apathetic youths, also disappointed with the disqualification of more than 2,000 reform candidates, were expected to stay away from Friday's vote.

"They want change now, not when they're too old to enjoy it," said Reza Yousefian, a 36-year-old parliament deputy elected by the youth vote in 2000, but banned by clerical leaders from standing for reelection.

CONSERVATIVE SOLUTIONS

The conservatives have, at least indirectly, addressed some of the youth population's desires -- by ignoring them.

Police turn a blind eye toward satellite dishes bringing foreign broadcasts to Iran. At the SFC fried chicken restaurant here recently, amorous couples holding hands flouted clerical bans on the mixing of men and women.

Headscarves worn by young Iranian women slipped to the extreme back of their heads, revealing colorful streaks of hair.

Badam Chian, the political director of the Islamic Coalition Party, an umbrella group for the country's hard-line political groups, denied that the conservatives were out of touch with the population.

"We have a very exciting, forward-looking platform that would modernize Iran's economy and provide jobs," he said without elaborating.

The U.S. Embassy here, empty since Washington cut ties with Iran during the 1979 revolution, when Iranians stormed the mission and held 52 Americans hostage for more than a year, has been turned into a symbol of that time. Murals with anti-American themes decorate the walls of the former compound.

Still, Iranians say many here apply for the U.S. "green card" lottery, printing out applications available online, and boarding flights to attend interviews at the U.S. mission in the United Arab Emirates.

"We have to look outside of Iran for our hope," said a 28-year-old woman submitting an immigration application at the Canadian Embassy in Tehran. She asked that her name not be used. "I haven't told anybody I'm trying to leave," she said.

At the Computer Capital mall, Ali Reza Jafari said, at 30, he was too old to emigrate to a foreign land. "I'm married, and it's difficult to start over with nothing. For now, we are just sitting here with nothing to do."

NBC's Preston Mendenhall is on assignment in Iran.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4325421/

Veiled Dissent, Iranian Youth Push Limits

February 20, 2004
ABC News
Jim Sciutto

TEHRAN -- You have to look closely, but Iranians have been behaving in ways that until recently were considered unacceptable and un-Islamic here.

Today, some girls wear makeup. They push their veils farther and farther back on their heads showing some of their hair, which conservative Muslims consider risqué. Unmarried couples hold hands in public. Teenagers listen openly to Western pop music.

The changes are subtle, in a country where Iranian men and women still must abide by a strict Islamic code. Women must wear the familiar, frumpy chador, a black flowing robe which translates into English as "tent." Men are still officially prohibited from accompanying women other than their wives and female relatives. But very slowly, young Iranians are tasting new social freedoms.

Farhad — his English nickname is Freddy — is the lead singer of the Tehran heavy metal rock band "Moghan," or "The Priests." Bands like his were forbidden into the late 1990s. Now, they can practice and sometimes play concerts. Some bands even sell CDs, though only with the approval of an official Islamic committee.

"Nobody bothers us," said Farhad. "Even though right across from us, there's a guy from the revolutionary guards. They are used to it by now."

‘We Have Rave Parties’

Behind closed doors, young Iranians constantly told us, they are pushing the limits of Iran's conservative Muslim society even further.

"The nightlife in Iran is amazing," a 25-year-old engineering student told me. (He, like many young people, asked that ABCNEWS not use his name.) "In the suburbs around Tehran, you can see everything. You can never imagine to see it in Las Vegas, I think."

"We have rave parties," a 27-year-old woman said. "We have ecstasy parties, which is in fashion recently, cocaine parties, coke parties."

For changes like this to happen, there must have been some tacit official acceptance, but there were no public pronouncements. Iran's pro-reform politicians, criticized by many here for delivering change far too slowly, claim credit for helping to create a more permissive environment. They make small steps toward their vision of a more open, more equitable Iran.

Reform Activists Want Gradual Change

"We as reformers have said that we want gradual changes," said Dr. Abdollah Ramazan Zadeh, the Iranian president's spokesman, and a reform party activist. "We have said it to the people and we have promised not to go more too fast."

But young Iranians — 70 percent of the population is under 35 — say the government's small concessions have come with no new political freedoms. For them, the changes are purely cosmetic.

"You see a little bit more women coming with, let's say, better-designed clothes, more fashionable, but deep down inside, not a lot has changed," a 30-year-old man said. "Politically, socially, not a lot has changed."

"I think you know there is no political freedom," said one 19-year-old girl. "If you speak, you will go to jail."

Continuing Crackdown

Many here believe Iran's conservatives are using token gestures — looser veils, tighter clothes, more Western music — to draw attention away from efforts to stifle and even reverse political reform. The signs of a continuing crackdown, they say, are distressing.

Since 1999, 200 pro-reform newspapers have been shut down. Nearly 4,000 mostly reformist candidates were barred from today's parliamentary elections. Thousands of political prisoners are in Iranian jails.

Student leader Ali Afshari, 30, finished a three-year sentence just last month. An outspoken critic of Iran's religious leaders, he was charged with "threatening security."

"I spent 350 straight days in solitary confinement," said Afshaire. "They didn't let me sleep and sometimes they beat me. Only my hope for the future kept me alive."

While Ali was being held in Tehran's notorious Evin prison, an Iranian-Canadian journalist named Zahra Kazemi investigating suspected torture of detainees was arrested outside while attempting to take photographs. She later died in police custody — allegedly beaten to death. Inside and outside Iran, her case sparked outrage.

"For now, the reform movement has been defeated," said Afshari said. "It is like what has happened in China. Politically, the government puts people under limitations, but gives them a bit more social freedom. What we really want are political rights."

Religious Leaders: Government Has Lost Its Way

Several times since Iran's 1979 revolution, the country's hard-line rulers have flirted with change — in the mid-1980s during the depths of the debilitating Iran-Iraq war and again after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 — allowing slight relaxation of the country's strict Islamic code.

Most recently, the relaxation came after moderate President Khatami won the presidency here in 1997 and pro-reform deputies won a parliamentary majority in 2000. But superficial changes have not led to more lasting political reform.

It is a measure of the internal tensions here that some of the religious leaders who helped lead Iran's Islamic revolution believe the current government has lost its way. Even in Qom, Iran's most conservative Muslim city, there is public dissent.

"The first slogans of the revolution were independence, freedom and Islamic Republic," said Mohammad Ali Ayazi, a professor at one of Qom's most prestigious and conservative religious seminaries. "But all of those slogans are now forgotten and wasted. We should give the right of choice to people. We should allow people to think about any religion, to follow any school of thought. We are not guardians of the people. People should be free."

Those are dangerous opinions, even for a respected mullah. Ayazi has been barred from appearing on Iranian television.

Solutions?

For many Iranians, the December earthquake in the southwestern city of Bam put the government's failures in the sharpest light. Ancient buildings collapsed into dust. Domestic relief efforts were slow. More than 43,000 people were killed.

"As you see in Bam," one student leader told ABCNEWS, "it shows the real face of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime. It's a real crisis. It can cut the protests, control everything, limit your freedom, but they cannot help you."

Increasingly, Iranians, especially young people, place equal blame for such failures on the conservatives and the reformers they once had such high hopes in.

"The expectations of the younger generation are very high," said the president's spokesman, Abdollah Ramazan Zadeh. "They have a right to say that they haven't reached what they wanted but we have a right as reformers to say to them that we did not promise them to solve everything."

Still, for many here, the few solutions that have come have been purely superficial, a veil hiding deep divisions over Iran's future.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/WNT/World/iran_youth_040220-1.html

Voters Stay Away from Tehran Polling Stations

February 20, 2004
The Financial Times
Gareth Smyth

Polls opened on a bright, sunny Friday morning for the seventh parliamentary elections since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, but few polling stations in Tehran experienced more than a trickle of voters.

With more than 2,000 mainly reformist candidates excluded by the Guardian Council, an Islamic constitutional watchdog, Iran's conservatives are expecting to win a majority of the 290 seats.

The reformist landslide of 2000 saw a turnout of about 67 per cent and a much lower figure this time is likely to be seen as an expression of disquiet in the Islamic system.

Some conservatives have predicted Friday's turnout could be as high as 60 per cent. But Mohammad Reza Khatami, general-secretary of Mosharekate, the largest reformist party, which is boycotting the poll, said that even 40 per cent could not be seen as a victory for the conservatives.

"There are more people coming to buy my plants than going in there to vote," said one florist in east Tehran whose shop is immediately next to a mosque being used as a polling station.

At the Mosque of the Prophet in Nabovatt square, east Tehran, queues of voters were attracted by the presence of film crews from IRB, the state television company.

"People are very active and willing to risk their lives [for the Revolution]," said Mohsen Joneydi, a conservative supporter.

But many voting in Nabovatt square were not from the immediate area, as citizens can vote anywhere in the city.

"They have been brought here so the cameras can show the enthusiasm of the people," said a shopkeeper nearby. "Myself, I won't be voting."

Mashhad, the country's second largest city, registered more activity. "The traditional religious people in the commercial quarter have been voting for the conservatives," said a Mosharekate member in Mashhad.

In the countryside and small towns, local and tribal factors usually encourage a higher turnout than in the cities.

Reformist leaders not boycotting the election expressed mixed feelings to reporters as they left the polling stations.

Mehdi Karroubi, the parliamentary speaker and ally of reformist president Mohammad Khatami, said the turnout would be "acceptable by international standards".

President Khatami repeated his call for "massive participation" despite "all the problems". He said that Iranians had often "produced the unexpected".

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1075982695595&p=1012571727172

Despite Iran Denials, Evidence of Nuke Plans Grows

February 20, 2004
Reuters
Louis Charbonneau

VIENNA -- Western diplomats who follow the U.N. nuclear agency are increasingly certain Iran had an atomic weapons program after recent reports that essential components had been found for making nuclear fuel or nuclear bombs.

Diplomats on the nuclear agency's governing board and a U.S. official said on Thursday U.N. inspectors in Iran had discovered components which were usable in advanced centrifuges for extracting enriched uranium.

Tehran repeated on Friday it had no such equipment, contradicting multiple reports that the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had discovered such technology.

"There was a report that they found (advanced P2 enrichment centrifuge) parts in some military base, which was not true," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told Reuters.

"What we have is a research project that hasn't been implemented yet. There are no (P2 centrifuge) parts in any place in Iran. They are just trying to create a fuss about this."

But one diplomat said the U.N. inspectors had found several assembled centrifuges based on the "P2" design, which is a Pakistani version of the European-developed "G2" centrifuge.

"The centrifuges were apparently assembled but the Iranians say they never put uranium into them," the diplomat said.

Several Western diplomats dismissed the Iranian denials.

"The aggregate of evidence clearly demonstrates that Iran is pursuing a covert nuclear program in the best case and in the worst case a covert weapons program. The evidence points to the latter," a diplomat said.

The circle of diplomats who agree with the U.S. line that Iran has a nuclear weapons program appears to be widening, with even some non-Western diplomats saying it was becoming increasingly difficult to give Tehran the benefit of the doubt.

WEAPONS-GRADE MATERIAL

Experts say that acquiring weapons-grade material is the biggest hurdle that countries seeking to make an atomic bomb must overcome.

In October, Iran gave the Vienna-based IAEA a declaration of its nuclear program but made no mention of anything related to P2 technology, which some diplomats are now saying was a serious omission.

"We don't view that the information Iran provided was complete or correct," one of the diplomats said.

Iran's P2 designs, components and centrifuges are among the items IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to discuss in detail in a report expected to be circulated next week.

Experts say the P2 is twice as productive as the first-generation "P1," which Iran has learned to mass-produce to outfit its underground Natanz enrichment facility with tens of thousands of the machines.

Tehran had kept its P1 centrifuge technology hidden from the IAEA but acknowledged last year it had secretly purchased enrichment technology through a global nuclear black market.

A key player in the global black market was the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, who Malaysian police said on Friday sold Iran centrifuge parts for $3 million in the mid 1990s. It was unclear if this was P1 or P2 technology.

Western diplomats said both the P1 and P2 centrifuge almost certainly came from Khan through "middlemen." Diplomats said Libya also acquired P1 and P2 technology through Khan. After months of denials by Pakistani officials that their country had provided any nuclear aid to any foreign country, Khan recently admitted to leaking nuclear technology to Iran, North Korea and Libya.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57551-2004Feb20.html

On the Spot: Boycott at the Ballot Box in Iran

February 20, 2004
The Times
Ramita Navai

The result of Iran's general election today is a foregone conclusion, but voter turnout will be crucial. Ramita Navai reports from Tehran on the boycott and its effect on the hardline Government.

How high has the turnout been?

Some analysts are saying that it is as low as 20 per cent in central Tehran. It will be higher in rural areas, but we don't have indications yet from outside the capital.

Iran has a good history of turnout – 50 per cent to 60 per cent nationally, so I would say that there is evidence of a boycott, particularly among young people.

At the polling station that I went to in northern Tehran there were few young people. Those that had turned up came only to get a stamp on their ID cards to show that they had voted.

One student preparing to take her university entrance exams was told that if she had a stamp, then the academic authorities would look upon her more favourably – she would be seen as having done her civic duty.

Some of those turning up for stamps, and others just making a stand, have submitted blank ballots. Even reformist candidates who had not been disqualified boycotted the election. It's a big movement.

Is the young vote important?

The voting age is 15, which is really significant because two thirds of the population is under 29 – a huge chunk of the electorate is teenaged, they wield a lot of power.

The young have been very vocal. They've been sending each other text messages and posting messages on websites. There's no talk of who to vote for, the only talk is: "I'm boycotting."

But they don't want to go out on the streets to demonstrate, especially after the student riots of last June. Dozens of people were imprisoned indefinitely.

To them this is a far safer way to protest, not only at the reformist candidates being disqualified, but also to show their total disillusion with President Khatami and his reformist movement.

When they voted Mr Khatami in in 1997 he made inspiring speeches about religious democracy and liberal social and cultural reforms and gained cult status among young people.

After his victory they could suddenly listen to pop music and wear colourful headscarves. But when the conservatives blocked his legislation, the young started to feel disenchanted.

What is the expected result?

All 30 parliamentary seats in 2000 went to reformist candidates. This year they will all be conservatives because most of the reformist candidates have been disqualified. The results will start to come through tomorrow. Who wins is a foregone conclusion: what will be interesting is the turnout and the number of blank or void ballot papers.

Is the Government worried about the boycott?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has blamed the reformist MPs for the boycott in a veiled way. The conservatives are worried about low turnout, as it means that the reformists are likely to be able to question the legitimacy of their Government – if only 30 per cent of the people voted for you, is it legitimate?

Is the boycott likely to affect how they govern?

Nobody seems able to predict how they will react if the result shows a clear boycott. Some analysts say that the conservatives will clamp down on reformists further.

Two nights ago two reformist newspapers were shut down along with an office of the leading reformist opposition party. Others predict that they might grant superficial social reforms as sweeteners to placate the population.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1-1008808,00.html

Eye of the storm: An election without democracy in Iran

By AMIR TAHERI
Jerusalem Post

We may have to wait another week before the authorities in Teheran announce the full results of the February 20 general election.

But don't hold your breath. The results have been known for weeks.

The list of candidates established by the Council of the Guardians of the Revolution on February 7 was designed to ensure the control of the future Islamic Majlis (parliament) by the more hard-line factions within the Khomeinist regime.

Even a month ago, few would have predicted such an easy victory for the faction of which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the figurehead. The rival faction, whose standard-bearer is President Muhammad Khatami, was expected to put up a real fight.

It did not because, lacking a base of popular support, it did not have the stomach for a real fight.

The Iranian election experience puts an end to several illusions.

The first of these is that the mere holding of elections is a sign of democratization. Now, however, we know that although there can be no democracy without elections, it is possible to have elections without democracy.

The second illusion that has died in Iran today is that the present regime can be reformed from within.

The third illusion is the belief that we now have a united domestic opposition force with a coherent analysis of the nation's situation and a clear vision of its future.

Now, however, we know that the so-called reformist camp did not exist except in the imagination of some Western commentators.

This election has broken that camp into no fewer than 18 different mini-groups, some of which have boycotted the elections while others, although denied the right to field candidates of their own, have opposed the boycott in the name of revolutionary solidarity.

The "reformist" camp which, in fact, presented absolutely no major reform program in any field, consisted of a crowd as random as that of a group of people waiting for a bus who have nothing in common except a desire to get on the next bus.

A credible opposition cannot be made of occasional student riots, farcical sit-ins in the parliament, speeches about Schopenhauer and Hegel, and Colgate smiles of the kind President Khatami excels in. Before anything else, it needs to show why the present system is bad, and how and with what it should be replaced.

In the past decade or so, Iranian opposition has generated much heat but little light. It has shown a great deal of passion but little thought. Romantic preoccupation with vague generalities has been its wont, while the Khomeinist establishment has focused on the concrete issues of power and its implementation.

There can be no democratization without an opposition capable of offering clear alternatives to a government's analyses and policies.

With the death of these illusions, Iranians and others interested in Iran must review some of their recent assumptions.

The key lesson to Iranians is that the alternative to this regime cannot emerge from within it.

It is possible, and to some extent even happening now, that large segments of the establishment drift away from it. But unless they are absorbed into an opposition, they will amount to nothing but the flotsam and jetsam of a turbulent political life.

Today's election shows once again that the present regime's legitimacy does not come from the ballot box but from its ability to impose its will by force if necessary. It obliges Iran's neighbors, and the major powers interested in the region, to abandon their illusions and to either accept the present regime on its own terms or designate it as a foe that must ultimately be brought down.

The death of illusions in Iran also means the death of the European policy of constructive dialogue first proposed by the Germans in the 1980s and now most actively pursued by the British. That policy was based on the assumption that the regime could reform itself, peacefully and speedily.

It is now clear that it cannot.

Thus the Europeans face a stark choice. They can decide to - holding their noses - continue dealing with the Iranian regime because they need its cooperation on a number of issues, notably nuclear non-proliferation, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Or they can orchestrate a set of new diplomatic, economic, and even military pressures on the regime as a means of encouraging the emergence of a genuinely democratic internal opposition.

The Bush administration, for its part, needs to develop a coherent analysis of the Iranian situation. It must decide whether or not Iran is, in the words of the State Department's number-two, Richard Armitage, a "sort of democracy" or a despotic regime using religion and violence to remain in power.

Short-term realpolitik may counsel an accommodation with the present regime in Teheran, much as it has determined Washington's China policy. But that kind of realpolitik would mean the premature death of President George W. Bush's ambitious plan for a new Middle East. It would also give the Islamic Republic time to assemble an arsenal of nuclear weapons, and other weapons of mass destruction, which the Teheran leadership regards as its best insurance policy.

The writer, an Iranian author and journalist, is editor of the Paris-based Politique Internationale.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1077164217025

Commentary: Iran's New Nuke Findings

By Alireza Jafarzadeh
FNC

U.N. inspectors probing Iran's nuclear program have found equipment that is far more advanced than anything the Iranian regime has previously acknowledged. The new finding, in a military complex no less, is the second dramatic piece of evidence uncovered this month confirming that Tehran has no intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

Earlier, blueprints were discovered for a super-efficient centrifuge machine, known as P-2. The device would allow the Iranian regime to produce bomb-grade material far more quickly than the older P-1 model the mullahs were known to have.

The United Nations discoveries raise concerns about what else Iran may have acquired from the nuclear black market, perhaps designs for a complete weapon.

In July, 2003, I revealed a secret Iranian nuclear site in a military complex known as “Kolahdouz,” west of Tehran, where construction of a pilot uranium enrichment facility was nearly complete. In August 2002, I revealed the uranium enrichment site in Natanz, and the heavy water facility in Arak.

Confronted with this irrefutable evidence of its nuclear ambitions, and the consequent international pressure, Tehran agreed in October to U.N. snap inspections and pledged that henceforth it would operate with complete transparency. The newly uncovered evidence indicates quite the contrary: a deliberate game of hide-and-seek, intended to speed up Tehran’s nuclear weapons program, while feigning cooperation.

With this in mind, let’s look at Iran’s offer to provide nuclear fuel to the international market, as a desperate attempt to keep its nuclear weapons program alive by finding new rationales to explain it. Let’s not forget that Iran pledged to suspend its enrichment program last year, but continues to make and assemble centrifuges. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi suggested that Iran may soon resume enriching uranium (if it hasn’t already).

Once it masters the full nuclear fuel cycle, Iran could very well be just months away from producing weapons-grade material, and getting the bomb. That explains Kharrazi’s declaration that Iran will not give up its nuclear industry, which he described as a matter of “national pride.'' The State Department has described Iran as the world’s leading state-sponsor of terrorism. The mind boggles at how nuclear capability could boost Tehran’s destructive hegemony in the region.

Iran’s calculating clerics have dribbled out information only when confronted, conceded their nuclear sites only when exposed, and consented to certain steps only when forced to do so. Even after they finally pledged to be totally transparent and end 18 years of lies, the new revelations surfaced.

To confront Tehran’s nuclear threat, a two-fold approach is needed. One, the International Atomic Energy Agency should demonstrate zero tolerance regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Tehran was already in non-compliance in October, and should have been declared as such. The recent revelations are a smoking gun, and should trigger a referral to the U.N. Security Council.

Two, the international community, in particular the U.S., must make any rogue nation’s efforts to get the bomb so costly that they far outweigh the benefits of having one. The ayatollahs’ Achilles’ heel is their opposition, which has already called for a referendum for regime change in Iran. The general public, particularly Iran’s youth, clearly rejects the regime in its entirety. The U.S. can best challenge Tehran’s stubborn insistence on a secret nuclear weapons program by supporting Iran’s democratic opposition.

Alireza Jafarzadeh is the president of Strategic Policy Consulting, Inc. and a FOX News Channel foreign affairs analyst. He is a well-known authority in issues relating to Iran’s weapons of mass destruction program, terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism and Iranian internal politics.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,112046,00.html

Iran Media Barrage: Turnout Overwhelms 'traitors,' Shunning Disputed Elections

Feb.20, 2004

By Brian Murphy

Associated Press Writer

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - In a blitz of patriotic broadcasts and dissident messages, Islamic hard-liners and reformers dueled Friday during parliamentary elections that point to a conservative sweep but raise a bigger question: Did the reformist boycott succeed or crumble?
What is revealed from the mountain of paper ballots - possibly Saturday - may determine the credibility of the reform movement and its drive to make the all-powerful Iranian theocracy more accountable to elected officials and the public.

Reformers, outraged by the banning of more than 2,400 candidates, hoped for a widespread snub of the voting to humble the leadership just a week after the 25th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Blocked from the mainstream media, liberals fired off pro-boycott e-mails and mobile phone messages to millions of people.

"Don't take part in the funeral of freedom," said one text message.

But the conservative establishment fought back hard.

It pulled out all the stops - led by nonstop appeals and programs on state television and radio - and claimed a big turnout buried the boycott effort. A significant turnout would give the clerics' little reason to make democratic concessions.

"You see how those who are against the Iranian nation and the revolution are trying so hard to prevent people from going to the polls," said Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The candidate ban by a Khamenei-appointed panel left fewer than 250 veteran reformers among nearly 4,500 candidates and provoked one of Iran's most serious political crises in decades.

It means the 290-seat parliament will likely return to the control of lawmakers loyal to - or at least tolerant of - the unelected clerics who say their rule is divinely inspired.

The immediate significance would be an end to the ideological clashes that have paralyzed the legislature since the reformists won a two-thirds majority in 2000.

Parliament has little power, since all key measures need approval from the appointed conservative clerics. But the new lawmakers could have a free hand to pass budgets that support conservative factions and outlets, such as state broadcasting.

A victory for conservatives also would consolidate hard-line control at a sensitive time. In Iraq, Shiite Muslims are pressing for early elections and look to predominantly Shiite Iran for backing. Washington and its allies, meanwhile, are questioning Iran's denials about seeking nuclear arms technology.

"It's religious fascism," said Hamidreza Jalaeipour, a columnist for Yas-e-nou - one of two reform newspapers banned this week.

The conservatives were just as blunt about boycott backers.

"They are traitors to Islam and the country," Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati told worshippers at Tehran University. Jannati leads the Guardian Council, which banned the pro-reform candidates.

The former champion of the reformers - President Mohammad Khatami - was stoned-faced as he cast his ballot and conceded: "Whatever the result of the elections, we must accept it."

Reformers have indicated they could claim success by trimming national turnout to about 40 percent and lower in urban strongholds such as the capital, Tehran. Parliament elections in 2000 attracted 67 percent of voters nationwide and nearly 47 percent in Tehran province.

But assessing turnout was complicated by the sheer number of polling stations. Nearly 40,000 ballot sites were set up around the country in mosques, schools and even cemeteries.

Over 46 million people ages 15 and over were eligible to vote. No voting was planned in Bam in southeastern Iran, which was devastated by an earthquake Dec. 26.

A sampling of voting stations around Tehran suggested a mixed result.

At one mosque in an upscale neighborhood, just four voters came during a half hour in late afternoon. At the same time, more than 30 people voted in more conservative south Tehran.

At both places, local journalists said the turnout appeared lighter than for presidential elections in 2001, when two-thirds of the voters cast ballots.

In a working-class Tehran suburb, buses brought voters to the polls.

In the eastern city of Mashhad, a bastion of conservative Islam, no large crowds were seen around voting stations, but the turnout appeared moderate. In Tabriz, in the northwest, residents reported the voting was significant in some neighborhoods but light in others.

In Shabzever, a city near Mashhad, some voters arrived after polling times were extended by four hours. One elderly merchant said he was swayed by clerics on state TV.

"I didn't want to be a non-Muslim, so I went to the polling station," Hassan Rivandi said.

There were hints of some possible abuses. Police found 51 national ID cards on a man stopped at a roadblock in Doroud, about 240 miles southwest of Tehran, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

At least 150,000 police officers were assigned to patrols and to watch polling stations, IRNA said. There were no reports of violence.

State media quickly gave a glowing assessment of the turnout.

A barrage of reports described many polling stations as mobbed or running out of ballots. IRNA said one couple went straight from their wedding ceremony to vote.

Influential clerics berated fence-sitters.

"Anyone who fails in the slightest way to fulfill this duty will be answerable (to God) in this life and the next," said Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, head of the Experts Assembly, which advises Khamenei.

Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi singled out youths - the core of the reformers' support. Nearly half of Iran's 65 million people are under 25.

"Young people should know that (the future of) Islam is in their hands," he said.

One after another, voters were interviewed on television saying they want to rebuff "the enemy" - which means the United States to most conservatives. "We can gouge out the eyes of the enemy," one man told state TV.

For the first time, state TV carried a news scroll in English, saying how crowded it was at polling stations, apparently to reach out foreign journalists covering the elections. Another new move was separate voting areas for women - a gesture to the most conservative segments of society.

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGADJOAOWQD.html

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