The mixture itself is believable, since that's what was used in Oklahoma City. What isn't believable is that these elements just happened to combine on a moving train in just the right proportions to form a high explosive, AND THEN managed to get itself detonated (something which ordinarily needs an explosive such as a blasting cap). Unless they decided to save space by mixing the fertilizer, fuel oil, and blasting caps together while they transported them, I'm not buying this explanation.