[shrinkermd]

Bush I lost because of Ross Perot. The electorate was frightened of deficits and people like Pete Peterson and others were predicting doom and gloom. In steps Perot, leads in the polls, then withdraws and more or less endorses Clinton. Then Perot comes back in for what reason no one ever established. The rational people split their vote and Clinton was elected with 37% of the vote. Four years later he got 49% of the vote against a weak, elderly Bob Dole.

The poll showing Kerry ahead by 9-10 votes is a poll of "adults" or so it has been quoted. The election will be close. IMHO the campaign will have little effect as long as our foreign policy stays on a winning upswing and the economy continues to recover. As others have noted, the RATS are not offering much of anything except they hate President Bush.

[Theodore R.]

The 37 percent in 1992 was GHWB's popular vote percent, not Clinton's. Remember Wilson, Nixon, and Clinton all initially got elected with 42-43 percent. I am afraid that many Republicans will falsely expect "scandals" to un-do Kerry. Many people want "change," and Kerry is their vehicle, rightly or wrongly. Bush has alienated many conservatives who threaten to sit out the election, and he has not won over significant liberals with his many liberal initiative. These liberals despise all Republicans, and particularly Busah, for they genuinely believe that he and Jeb stole the 2000 election.

What would happen if John McCain switched parties next month and joined the Kerry ticket?