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To: Nick Danger
Good grief! If ignorance was money, you'd be a millionaire. There are two, yes, two surveys. First is the survey of establishments, from which the job numbers come. Second, there is the survey of households, from which the unemployment numbers come. See (www.bls.gov.) You almost will need a PhD in economics/survey statistics to really understand what is going on, but the liberal press doesn't worry about the details. The first survey is much larger than the second survey. However, the first survey misses new jobs at new firms and at new self-employed persons. Evidence suggests that in a recovery the establishment survey under-estimates new jobs relative the the household survey. Hence, the household survey recently has shown major gains in new employment whereas the establishment survey has not. Now, we don't EVEN want to get into the problems with seasonal adjustments and new population benchmark adjustments that have recently been made to the establishment survey. Until we have several more months of data, we won't have a good idea of what these adjustments have done the the "establishment" survey data. My gut is to believe the stock market rather than these survey numbers. Only time will tell . . . .
63 posted on 02/15/2004 12:01:26 AM PST by rebel_yell2
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To: rebel_yell2
That's an interesting note. You begin by calling me an ignoramus, and then proceed to repeat, albeit in different words, everything that I said.
64 posted on 02/15/2004 12:11:28 AM PST by Nick Danger (Give me immortality, or give me death)
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