[AntiGuv]

If it does fail, this would be the third time the Yale Economic Model has failed. In 1960 it predicted a slight Nixon victory and in 1992 it predicted a Bush reelection. It also predicted Gore would get a majority, but that doesn't count since the Model is supposed to predict merely the popular vote (and was actually quite close in 2000).

This would be the first time it fails so dramatically, however, in the event that it does indeed fail.

[Rokke]

Which quarters figures are used to make the final prediction?