[AntiGuv]

Did you overlook the fact that the recession has been over for about 28 months?

[Nick Danger]

Did you overlook the fact that the recession has been over for about 28 months?

No. If I went farther back in time in the Reagan era, I would find the same thing. There were two quarters of 6%-plus growth in 4Q80 and 1Q81. Then the numbers got sucky again until the sustained growth of 2Q83 started. Following your methodology, I could say that the Carter Recession ended in late 1980. But the unemployment rate was still in the 10% range 28 months later.

If you look at the Bush-era numbers, it's the same deal. I could, as you have here, declare the start of the recovery to have been 4Q01. But as they did in 1980 and 1981, things went back on slow simmer until 2Q03 -- about 7 months ago.

The pattern is almost identical.

[WOSG]

Have you overlooked the fact that the economy's recovery was decidedly weak due to several highly unusual factors:
1. 9/11 aftermath, especially in sectors like travel.
2. post-bubble stock market and corporate scandals in 2002, viz. worldcom and enron.
3. iraq war uncertainty, right up to march 2003.

Check the stock market - it followed that trajectory with a classic 'triple bottom' that dips on each of the above fears.

This 'perfect storm' has held growth back in 2003 and 2002. the recession was over for 28 months, but the recovery has been stifled. Then we fixed all of the above and had a bonus: tax cuts in may 2003. Since June 2003, we've been on track. Nick says wait six months ... he is right. January 2004 onwards, look at job growth. It is just beginning.