Yale Economic Model Still Predicts Bush Landslide in November

Yale - Fairmodel Presidential Equation ^ | February 14, 2004 | nwrep

[nwrep]

PING

[So Cal Rocket]

I don't see any adjustments made in this model for Democrat vote fraud. Therefore, it's not valid.

[Puppage]

Therefore, it's not valid.

Oh, man. You're post #3.......I hardly had any time to wallow in the beauty of this story. LOL

But, you have a dang good point.

[SandRat]

The highly accurate "Presidential Vote Equation" created by Ray Fair, a Yale economist, continues to predict a Bush landslide victory in November, despite several recent polls showing a decline in President Bush's popularity.

You mean this?

[the invisib1e hand]

I posted this on another thread...

It's not business as usual in American politics. That's why the left has to contort itself so in order to win the attention of the public.

A good many people are tired of sluts and liars and con men and adultery and parading homosexuality and terrorism and everything else they had tolerated from 1992 - 2000. It seems like more and more people know it's time to get down to business. The left has played its ridiculous hand. It does not stand a chance in this election.

[BellStar]

A bump 4 this story!

[raloxk]

I think the FAIR Model is flawed for one reason.

In the past there was a strong correlation between GDP growth and Job Growth. Thus 4% GDP often correlated to over 3m new jobs (See 1994 and 1983-84 BLS.GOV).Last 6 months of 2003 had 6.1% GDP growth but only about 250,000 new jobs. Thus if we have 4.5% GDP growth for 2004 as is forecasted, the FAIR model will predict BUSH winning in a landslide. But if job growth doesnt reach the 3m-3.5m plus that should correlate with 4.5% GDP growth, the model will overstate BUSH's popular vote total.

Given past levels of job growth, in 2003 there should have been about 2m new jobs correlating to 3.1% GDP (similar to 1986 and 1995 see BLS.GOV) plus over 3m in 2004 for a total of at least 5m new jobs the past two years. BUSH would be quite popular and would be up about 3m new jobs for his term

So the model is flawed because there is now a disconnect between strong GDP growht and Job growth that didnt exist in the past.

[AntiGuv]

You are probably correct. I think it clear by this point that in the past few years there's been a major discontinuity in the significance of any number of economic reports. If the job market in particular continues to stagnate as it has, there will likely be a lot of shocked Yale economic modellers come November.

[GeronL]

If Bush gets 58% of the popular vote, even I will be floored!

[ijcr]

Easy peasy...We just make the Pell Grant a government paycheck with one week of compulsory service and viola 5 million new jobs.

However, you are a smart cookie to focus on this issue.

[GeronL]

It was even accurate during depressions and recessions in the past.

[RightWhale]

Is jobs a real issue? Is off-shoring of jobs a real issue? If so, and it doesn't look so, that is about the only thing that might derail the Republicans

[EGPWS]

If the job market in particular continues to stagnate as it has,

Where? Certainly not here in the US!

Either you associate yourself with a lot of useless lazy bum's that don't want to work or find it, or your altering your mind with an illicit substance, or you didn't clarify yourself as to the country of which you were referring.

[narses]

Everyone I know who wants a job has a job. Period.

[EGPWS]

If Bush gets 58% of the popular vote, even I will be floored!

Define "floored" and send me a picture, if you would, when you are floored.

I'll mark it on my calender in November.

[edwin hubble]

"I don't see any adjustments made in this model for Democrat vote fraud. Therefore, it's not valid."

For the Bush-Gore election:
They predicted 50.8% of the 2 party vote for Gore and he got only 50.3% (of the 2 party vote).

Very Close - and underestimating Bush slightly.

The two factors unaccounted for:
Disgust with democrats in the Clinton Administration.
Democratic vote fraud.

[GeronL]

OK.. now I have most of the year to think of the funniest and weirdest definition of 'floored'.

[tubavil]

"...continues to predict a Bush landslide victory in November."

If that happens I'm moving to India to get my job back and then sneaking back in through Mexico to get all the health & other bennies that US taxpayers will be paying for.

Two can play at the "jobless recovery" game.

[js1138]

Everyone I know who wants a job has a job. Period.

But the government hasn't given everyone they job the want and deerve. And I'm still waiting for my Mercedes.