[labard1]

One other good sign. You probably know that there are electronic markets where people bet on who will win elections (among other things). Take a look www.intrade.com , which has a reasonably active market. The price of the Bush contract reflects the likelihood of his winning the November election. Today that price is 63.5 (which equates to an almost 2-1 probability of a Bush win).

The Iowa Electronic Market is older, but doesn't yet have a contract as clear in meaning as this one. The historical record of accuracy in the electronic market is better than the polls. Even though the amounts of money bet are modest, it is real money that people are winning or losing, so they tend to be more realistic than polls where nothing is at stake in the answer for most respondents.

[thesummerwind]

The price of the Bush contract reflects the likelihood of his winning the November election. Today that price is 63.5 (which equates to an almost 2-1 probability of a Bush win).

Great!

And the wooly caterpillars last fall indicated a Bush win too! Just kidding. ;)

Gotta go! Take care.