Advance Notice: Bush and the Stock Market Can Take the Hits

National Review Online ^ | 2/11/04 | Lawrence Kudlow

[WarrenC]

It seems to me I hear about this professor's economic model every election year, but I don't know what his record for accuracy is. Sure hope he's right.

[WarrenC]

Admin Moderator --- It appears the correct title for this piece is "Advance Notice". Could you edit it for me? Thanks.

[The Wizard]

Go Larry, Go

[bvw]

2004 growth economy near 4 percent, low inflation, and a rising jobs number

The state tax revenues say that ain't happening. The inflation numbers are so cooked they're nuclear, and the jobs numbers are anyone's fancy. The state revenues are hard numbers -- and so the fuel price. We've had such no inflation, eh? Then why are fuel oil and gasoline up 50% from two years ago?

[Galtoid]

Kudlow is also on record predicting a Dow 12,000 next year.
Hope so. He's my favorite Wall Street pundit.

[bvw]

Okay -- I'll make a ballpark -- the DOW could go to 23,000 next year. This is totally an effect of fiat money in hyper drive, dear. Where can that fiat moeny go? Into stocks, my good bro.

It says zero (maybe less) for jobs, and worse for economic health.

[petercooper]

Kudlow rules!

[LS]

Lessee, I buy gas at about $1.60 per gal. Exclude taxes, it's $1.04. If you adjust for non-fuel inflation, gas is cheaper now than in 1969 when I bought it for my Camaro.

[LS]

Nope. We're getting an increasing number of indicators that many of the "jobs" that once were counted by industries still exist as private firms. I've seen two separate reports that suggest that the number of unemployed is significantly overstated, and that the number of self-employed people (who make good incomes) is significantly understated.

And much of this is PRECISELY related to the Dow, because these people make stuff/provide services that are "outsourced" quietly inside America, but because it's not a big plant opening, no one sees it.

[bvw]

Hope, hope one way or hope the other is something not included in my observations.

Logically, then, the strong sense you seem to have of it is your own colorations.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

36,000 Dow !

[BillM]

What percentage is fuel of the COL? There are a lot of things involved. It's hard to believe someone as naive as you can use the internet.

[Dane]

The state tax revenues say that ain't happening. The inflation numbers are so cooked they're nuclear, and the jobs numbers are anyone's fancy. The state revenues are hard numbers -- and so the fuel price. We've had such no inflation, eh? Then why are fuel oil and gasoline up 50% from two years ago?

Actually fuel oil is less expensive than the fall of 2000. BTW, you can thank your buddies the demos for holding up drilling in ANWR.

The price of food and other things have been steady, but you ignore that.

Oh that's correct you are TLB rubber room fanatic, no wonder your demo talking points.

[bvw]

Well considering you're only

• excluding taxes,
• adjusting for something called "non-fuel inflation" whatever hat that came from and
• reaching back 35 years for comparative figure

then I guess you are r-i-i-ight.

[SamAdams76]

John Kerry is deeply saddened.

[bvw]

Okay, I raise my estimate: DOW 40,000! Might as well have a toal blow out of the fiat money express!