Juvenal always bears rereading, but Professor Peterson should stick to Philology and leave epidemiology to the pros.
The rate of genetic change in any disease organism and the amount of variability of it's genetic material give a very accurate date for the breakout of the disease among humanity.
HIV is considerably less than a century old in humans.
The disease is much more likely Gonorrhea since Syphilis did not appear until the 15th Century
I heard somewhere that it came back with explorers from the New World. Does that have any validity?
Also, even today hepatitis is more common among homosexual men than among heterosexual men, due mainly to anal intercourse and swallowing of semen. Might that have been the disease Juvenal may have symbolically paralleled with the metaphorical malaise of homosexuality?
Regards.