[Quix]

As usual, you are incredibly astute and perceptive as well as knowledgeable.

Nevertheless, somehow, methinks even the great Poohbah does not have ALL the factors flawlessly considered.

Xiamen and locale alone is a very complex component. Add in very complex Beijing's leadership dance. Add in Taiwan's very complex leadership dance. Add in PLA and Taiwan military's respective idiocies, blindnesses; glowing reports on top of rotten training, maintanence, follow-through; Add in the USA being spread thin with various political winds and desperate home situations aplenty; . . .

One does assume and hope that Taiwan has with usual Chinese cleverness planted plenty of spies and sabateurs on the Mainland. But then, Beijing certainly has been busy doing the same in a much more open society on Taiwan.

[risk]

Add in China's lunge toward fascism, as per Ledeen. I.e., world's oldest culture deserves another chance at global dominance.