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I agree. I think Bush takes Florida in November. He won't take California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware. Those I know for sure.

I agree, in that he will not take those states. He will improve his margins I think in just about all of them, if only by a point or two.

As far as California, he probably will not win it, but I think that has potential to be a lot closer than 2000. Gore won there by 12 or so points, when Gray Davis was widely seen as future presidential material and Dianne Feinstein was near the top of the ticket. Now, there's Arnold and Barbara Boxer, who I would have to assume is less popular than Feinstein for her Uber-liberalism. As I said, I don't think he'll win there, but if the GOP gets off their asses and start working hard for Bush, a tightening margin will force Democrats to spend money there. With their situation now, they cannot afford to do that. That is why they are at a disadvantage at present.