Looking more closely at my tossup states, PA is "Lean Dem" but they have an unpopular Dem governor (the odious Rendell) and Kerry will have to work a little to keep it in the fold. MO, NV and OH are "Lean Rep" and Bush will have to campaign in those states. But, I think if Bush wins PA he wins the election and if Kerry wins OH, then he probably wins NV and MO too -- along with the election.
I still say MN, OR, IA, NM, FL, NH are true tossups. FL and NH are near the Bush camp. NM probably leans Bush without Richardson on the ticket. IA has a Dem governor who just announced he wants a big tax increase. MN is leaning Republican. OR leans more and more Democrat over the years.
The truth is, the state-by-state analysis isn't interesting for the Bush camp. He has a structural advantage this year because of EV changes in the states. Basically, if it's a close case like 2000, Bush will win the EV.
Kerry is the one who has to play the EV game. He cannot win without a majority of my tossup states. So who does he choose as VP? There are only two choices -- Richardson and Bob Graham. Bob Graham is the only Dem politican popular enough to deliver Florida. Even then, it's a tossup. Bill Nelson cannot. Richardson might be able to have enough of an effect on Hispanics to deliver NM (that would be a lock), AZ (very likely) and FL (who knows?). But as a Clintonite and someone at the very center of the Monica controversy, he's not an ideal option if you don't want to bring up old wounds. I think that Richardson is the only one who could bring more than one state to the Democrats. Edwards probably won't deliver NC. He's not a regional candidate, so he won't deliver any southern state. (Well, maybe VA on a good day.)
If I were Kerry, I'd pick Richardson.
If I were Clinton, I'd make Richardson decline.