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To: Soren
I don't think the ECB will lower in the near term. Just a guess really, based on their strong aversion to inflation.

You may want to listen to the first hour of Roger Arnold's show from this morning. He has been making the case for the ECB scrapping their inflation targeting and lowering sooner rather than later better than anyone else I have heard.

First Hour

The bigger question in my mind is how much longer the Japanese are going intervene with the same level of intensity. If the USD continues its relatively linear descent, it will be near 75 by the election.

Japan has budgeted somewhere near $720 billion dollars (too lazy to convert to yen right now) just for this year to keep the dollar from dropping any further against the yen....nearly 3/4 of a trillion dollars (ACK!). They are past the point of no return and moving over the cliff right along with us. As soon as the Japanese, the main funder of our deficits, stop propping up the dollar, that's when the music stops and everyone starts running for the chairs.

7 posted on 02/08/2004 9:24:55 AM PST by Orangedog (An optimist is someone who tells you to 'cheer up' when things are going his way)
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To: Orangedog
Thanks for Roger Arnold link. First time I've listened to him. Very interesting show.
9 posted on 02/08/2004 11:27:46 AM PST by Soren
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