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Let's assume the OBL/Iran and 30 nuke thing is true. (And, I use the Assume word in the same sense that Felix Unger once did -- when you Assume, you make an ass of U and me.).

If this was all true, it would be the ONLY credible explanation for holding bin Laden for this long, without disclosure. That is, we have a fear of wmd retaliation in the U.S.

Frankly, there would be no other political reason reason, nor would any operational reason exist to hold him this long. Surely he is not cooperating, and use of any intel found with him would be quick. (We would also have to be careful about using too much so as to tip AQ off that we have him). Looking at the political question, Bush would benefit from letting the country know we have him. And, the longer we have him without releasing the info, opens the President to charges of politicizing the issue.

IMHO -- I don't think we have him, if only because the secret could not be kept this well, for this long.

But, the nuclear blackmail question is, if nothing else, very interesting.

"nuclear blackmail". I may have been reading far too many jihad websites, but I think this is why we have not disclosed OBL's capture. ( In fact, farfetched- but maybe we are even funding the body doubles who run around Afghanistan/Pakistan ) I believe that we are under great threat. Every day, there are increasing comments about surival tips, "what to do if hit with bio/chem", preps for nuclear war, etc.

I email Sean this exact scenario about blackmail yesterday. Just looking at the countdown pic, with the Sun, moon and OBL with the suitcase nuke pic:

"I was just thinking about the end of 1424 the Mahdi prophecy and such. If OBL has been captured, could that picture that depicts OBL the sun,moon and the nuke be a communique? Was it a nuclear blackmail? Return OBL before the end of 1424 or a city will disappear(nuked)? Just sitting hear reading some of the old posts. Been awfully quiet lately.

Steve"

Americans have very short memories, we see that now, 9/11 is a distant memory for most people. If OBL were announced as being captured tomorrow, it would be a 2-3 week story tops, then the media would shift the focus back to their usual coverage of the war on terror.