[Poohbah]

I would at least consult non-gubmint history before making such a claim, this being a conservative web site and all.

Try using the late Trevor N. Dupuy's QJMA (Quantified Judgement Model Analysis) method, described in his book Numbers, Prediction, and War. Dupuy got the Pentagon's Studies and Gaming Agency (SAGA) very angry at him, because he managed to develop a very accurate means of modeling ground combat on his own, without a big SAGA contract.

1,000,000 dead and wounded across two very large "forcible entry" amphibious invasions (Operation Olympic would've hit Kyushu; Operation Coronet would've hit the Kanto Plain on Honshu, right outside Tokyo), while fighting opponents who frankly didn't care if they died, as long as they took one gaijin with them...it's a reasonable estimate.

The Japanese plan was to use the world's largest levee en masse--basically, every able (and not-so-able) bodied person--to fight a war of attrition.

[JohnGalt]

A-bert who use to post in these parts from my neck of the ideological woods was one of those who was happy the bomb were dropped; he was told he was preparing for the Japanese invasion.

I respect that nor do I dispute the human calculus, however, as I read the history, I believe the Japanese were ready to give-up save a vocal minority in the Japanese Army who proposed to fight to the death, no different than officers within Lee's Army who wanted to keep fighting.

To pretend that the case is closed is not 'history' but ideological posturing. Beginning in Jan. 1945 when the Japanese sent out peace feelers, MacArthur seems to believe the Japanese would surrender to terms they eventually surrendered to in August 1945. I get the impression that there was never going to be a Japanese invasion.