I have to disagree. Wing would have been level with Lead, and no matter how tucked in he was, there is no way that Lead's right wingtip would have been able to strike Wing's right vertical stab without also taking out the left vertical stab.
If Wing were slightly below and behind Lead, then the proper break would have been down, not right and low.
No, either a head to head a bit too close, or else one aircraft was flying formation inverted.
Remember, I am assuming a condition where Wing is closing fast on Lead where whichever direction the break occured, it would be close aboard, not at a safe distance. A head-to-head collision would have resulted in too much damage for either bird to make it back. This was a bumping. Anything head on would have fireballed one or both aircraft.