As Bush's re-election prospects become a bit more precarious, the odds increase that the Assault Weapon Ban will expire.
At one time it looked like the Democrats would nominate a hard-left crazy (e.g., Dean or Clark), and that Bush would consequently achieve a landslide victory with huge coattails to pad Republican margins in the House and Senate. Under those circumstances, Bush would have continued moving to the left, to occupy the political center which the Democrats were abdicating. Therefore Bush would have pushed hard for reauthorization of the AW Ban, on the theory that it would attract some moderate independent and Democratic votes while still leaving conservatives with no place else to go.
But the rise of candidates like Kerry and Clark, combined with the bubbling dissatisfaction of conservatives over run-away federal spending, have altered the political landscape. Bush now has to worry about placating and energizing his base, rather than ignoring his base in a quest for marginal voters in the middle.
Bush can't afford the political fallout from signing a reauthorization of the AW Ban, but neither can he stand the heat from a veto. So he'll quietly pass the word to the Republican House leadership that it's okay with him if they bury the bill. This will give him plausible deniability when the AW Ban lapses.
Of course Bush will be attacked by the gun-control crowd for not doing enough to force the AW Ban through, and some Republican moderates will be hurt (especially non-incumbent challengers for Senate and House seats in swing districts). But at this point Bush is more interested in just getting re-elected than in orchestrating a landslide victory.
So if you are against the Assault Weapon Ban, keep hoping for a close Presidential contest.
I meant Kerry and Edwards.