Comparison of Bush Budget (FY’04) with Past Budget Averages
|
FY’04
Proposal |
Post-WWII
Average (FY’46 - FY’02) |
Clinton
Budgets (FY’94 – FY’01) |
G.H.W. Bush
Budgets (FY’90 - FY’93) |
Reagan
Budgets (FY’82 - FY’89) |
|
| Total Receipts as percent of GDP |
17.0%
|
17.9%
|
19.4%
|
17.7%
|
18.0%
|
| Total outlays as percent of GDP |
19.7%
|
19.5%
|
19.6%
|
22.0%
|
22.3%
|
| Deficit (-)/Surplus as percent of GDP |
-2.7%
|
-1.6%
|
-0.1%
|
-4.3%
|
-4.3%
|
| Annual growth in total receipts (average % change from previous fiscal year, FY96 $) |
2.7%
|
2.9%
|
4.9%
|
0.5%
|
2.5%
|
| Annual growth in total outlays (average % change from previous fiscal year, FY96 $) |
2.2%
|
2.3%
|
1.5%
|
1.9%
|
2.7%
|
| Defense spending as a percent of total outlays |
17.5%
|
35.5%
|
17.1%
|
21.7%
|
26.7%
|
| Non-defense discretionary spending as a percent of total outlays |
19.2%
|
19.4%*
|
17.6%
|
16.6%
|
17.1%
|
| Net interest costs as percent of total outlays |
7.9%
|
10.5%*
|
13.9%
|
14.5%
|
13.2%
|
| Other mandatory spending as a percent of total outlays |
55.4%
|
41.6%*
|
51.4%
|
46.2%
|
42.9%
|
| Debt held by public at end of fiscal year as percent of GDP |
36.9%
|
44.0%
|
43.0%
|
46.3%
|
36.7%
|
| Gross Debt at end of fiscal year as percentof GDP |
64.8%
|
56.2%
|
63.4%
|
61.8%
|
45.4%
|
| * includes only data back to 1962 since the distinction between discretionary and mandatory began only in that year. | |||||
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One conclusion that I draw from it is that Bush is as big a spender as his predacessors. And unlike Reagan, he has a Republican Congress. And unlike Reagan, he is spending signifantly less on defense, and more on other programs.
Another conclusion is the massive growth in entitlement programs, which Bush has expanded. Most recently with his prescription drugs plan. To his credit, he has proposed some privatization of social security, but I really have to question how hard he is pushing for this.
Also, I expect the "FY 04" numbers to only get bigger since they are only proposals at this point.