One terrorist with deadly disease 'could cause deaths of millions'

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 2/2/04 | Robert Uhlig

[saquin]

The prospect of a terrorist, self-infected with a deadly disease at a stage before it shows its symptoms, boarding an aeroplane to infect tens or hundreds of other passengers is what risk experts call a "low likelihood, high impact" threat.

Despite sounding as unlikely as the plot of a trashy novel, the threat was considered real enough on Saturday for the American government to refuse security clearances for six flights to America.

It is deemed "low likelihood" because of the difficulty terrorists would face in obtaining or manufacturing a viable biological agent, yet "high impact" because of the ease with which disease would spread in the confined space of an airliner, eventually to infect millions.

The practice of recirculating cabin air to cut fuel costs has already been blamed for spreading colds, flu and gastrointestinal infections that have struck down 200 passengers at once.

Older aircraft such as Concorde and the Boeing 737 relied solely on air ducted from the jet engines for their ventilation. It meant the on-board atmosphere was extremely dry but at least the cabin air was replaced completely every three minutes.

Modern airliners use a 50-50 blend of fresh and old air simply because it is cheaper. Air conditioning units siphon power from the jet engines; less ventilation means lower fuel consumption.

With the increased carbon dioxide levels comes a greater circulation of particles, organisms and disease.

Potentially the biggest threat in these circumstances would be a terrorist infected with smallpox.

A single sneeze would be enough to put hundreds of thousands of saliva droplets carrying the variola virus into circulation, which would be fatal to three out of 10 people not vaccinated against the disease.

Unlike anthrax, smallpox can spread from person to person. It claimed about a billion lives before being declared extinct in 1980. "Smallpox is a very dangerous weapon in the hands of terrorists and you don't need some clever way of delivering it," said Dr Lev Sandakhchiyev, director of Russia's Vektor Institute, which holds one of only two official samples of the extinct disease.

"All you need is a sick fanatic to get to a populated place. The world health system is completely unprepared for this."

A study by Dr Tara O'Toole, of Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, gave some indication of the "high impact" potential of a theoretical attack.

A smallpox-infected terrorist who boarded a plane on April 1 would, by mid-June, have led to 15,000 cases and 2,000 deaths in America, while the disease would have spread to at least four other countries.

Another study, by the American government, predicted three million cases and one million deaths within a few months of the first infected patient.

Smallpox is on a list of biological agents "of highest concern" issued by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. The list includes bubonic or pneumonic plague, which can be passed person to person, tularaemia (an acute infectious disease of rodents transmitted by ticks or flies) and Lassa fever.

Experts believe smallpox, anthrax, botulism and plague are the most likely pathogens to be used.

[FairOpinion]

"It claimed about a billion lives before being declared extinct in 1980

A study by Dr Tara O'Toole, of Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, gave some indication of the "high impact" potential of a theoretical attack.

A smallpox-infected terrorist who boarded a plane on April 1 would, by mid-June, have led to 15,000 cases and 2,000 deaths in America, while the disease would have spread to at least four other countries.

Another study, by the American government, predicted three million cases and one million deaths within a few months of the first infected patient.

Smallpox is on a list of biological agents "of highest concern" issued by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia."


===

Some people are trying to minimize the risk, but I think the threat is real and the results will be devastating, unless we vaccinate BEFORE there is an outbreak.

[JerseyHighlander]

The solution is mandatory 7 day quarantine in holding cells similar to those used by NASA in the 60's for the returning astronauts. 7 days prior, 7 days after. And Hari Krishna robes for all airline travelers. We better put good money into this or we'll get those hospital robes with the open backs. Public health, and public decency require it.

/sarcasm
/hope I didn't need to use the /sarcasm

[Mulder]

Reason #200 not to fly....

[tracer]

Big deal.

The purportedly/potentially virus-laden air easily could be sterilized by the incinerating effects of the combustion that takes place within a jet engine and then cooled with ease by the ambient temperatures found at flight altitudes. Biohazard-containing research facilities routinely and under Federal mandate pass vented air therefrom through incineration devices contained in ventilation ducts.

Such really isn't rocket science. Or is it, in a very real sense?

But fear not -- there's always at least one or two FReepers who have been-there-done-that-got-the-T-shirt and can effortlessly come up with solutions to the problems of today's world that defy the bloviated "experts" who constipate the world with their Hopkinsesque "studies.".

And said FReepers do it in such an ever-so-humble manner to boot, always glad to pop yet another hype-filled balloon released by "experts" and dispersed by the ever-gullible media that survives largely scaring the $#!t out of the adoring sheeple on a daily basis.

Now I remember why I got the hell out of laboratory "science" so many years ago......

[tracer]

"With the increased carbon dioxide levels comes a greater circulation of particles, organisms and disease."

Horse puckey, pure and simple, and contrary to Charles' Law, for openers.....

[bonesmccoy]

ABSOLUTELY CORRECT!

Somebody tell the National Security structure to kick the ass of the Public Health liberals who BLOCKADED immunization of my staff, my doctors, my nurses, and my entire city's first responder staff????

[longtermmemmory]

one need look no further than patient zero and the spread of Aids.

The question becomes how to identify an infected person. Ever get on an airplane with a person who obviously has a flu or cold?

How do we as a society just move around? The islamist would love for air travel to stop.

[bonesmccoy]

How do you proposed to recirc air from a combustion chamber without introducing the heat to vital components in the engine and also significantly decreasing engine efficiency/performance?

Or am I missing your point?

I think the point of the story is absolutely correct.

[bonesmccoy]

Q: how to identify an infected person

A: At this juncture, we will not be capable of identifying the first case until AFTER someone is obviously infected and half the city already is at risk... God help us if the infection starts in a major metropolitan area!

[FairOpinion]

"In 1972, a single case of small pox transferred multiple times before the diagnosis was made, infected 11 others, who in turn infected 138 more people, led to the isolation of 10,000 people and vaccination of 20,000,000 people in Yugoslavia."


http://www.uic.edu/sph/cade/bioforum/smallpox/hershow/tsld019.htm

[geopyg]

A couple of days after 9/11 I went to the library and got a few books on bio and chenical weapons. I couldn't believe they were still there. When they were due back, they had a long list of people waiting for them.

They talked a lot about "delivery systems" and how to preserve the samples, etc. Probably written before suicide bombers were in the news, 'cuz I read them and thought "Just give yourself a snort of small pox (or Ebola, etc.), wait however many days until your infectious but not showing symtoms, get on the plane in Israel, through Paris, London, JFK and on to LAX."

[bonesmccoy]

yes, however, that was when the small pox vaccine was actually available.

Here in the USA, a doctor can NOT buy the vaccine.

I have tried.

According to local health care agency employees, the vaccine can not be purchased because the state controls the supply.

CAN YOU PLEASE TELL YOUR CONGRESSMAN that it is STUPID to have a gov't monopoly on ANYTHING in the medical field!

[bonesmccoy]

be sure to include long lay overs in each terminal with occasional hacking over the salad bar.

yuck!

[geopyg]

Hey - who would be better suited to run a vaccine program than the gov't. Look at this season's flu vaccine - plenty to go around, good quality control, and it really did the trick. /sarcasm

[bonesmccoy]

1. they made 80 million doses when the CDC recommended that all kids get TWO shots instead of one. So not only were they short in production, but they grossly underestimated doses required.
2. This is nothing new. It happened in previous years and I'm getting fricking sick and tired of drug companies screwing the doctor's around.
3. They also missed on the major flu strain. Maybe they need to invest in some better techniques and technologies??????
4. It was REALLY stupid to hear HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson on a radio commercial imploring people to get a flu shot last week. Hell, I've been out of flu shot for three weeks and they're running this commercial???

[KingNo155]

My doctor has informed me that a simple salt water gargle and a saline based nasal spray would effectivly kill most virus's before they could cause much damage. Seems to work !I'm am always cathing my kids cold's , have followed his advice and only got 1 cold this year compared to 5-6 last year,I also wash my hands b4 I touch my face and nose. Am I paraniod? No, I lost alot of time at work last year due to various cold/virus's.

[FairOpinion]

Finally -- someone as upset as I am over this!

I don't know how can the government PREVENT us from taking a very sensible action, which may save our lives. Or conversely, the government is putting our lives in danger unnecessarily, by not allowing people make an individual choice of whether or not to take the vaccine.

[bonesmccoy]

What's happening is that the liberal/socialists are holding vaccine.

Literally.

I'm a conservative physician and the liberals know it.

So, in meetings, these idiots smugly say that they have the vaccines and that I can't buy any because the vaccine is government's responsiblity to safely manage.

I can not figure out why the laws are still not changed and why the vaccine manufacturers are refusing to sell the vaccine.

[longtermmemmory]

I remember seeing an air sanitizer when the anthrax scare started. Perhaps some kind of ulraviolet, ozone purifyer for all passenger airplane air circulators.