It's been cold even here in Richmond for the last two weeks, although we did get into the 40s a couple days. I remember those long, cold winters...
As far as bad estimates of costs go, I think there's no problem being critical of Bush. But that also means giving consideration to whatever reasons he offers for the mis-estimate. But, for me, that's a far different question from whether or not I should vote for Bush. I have no doubts about that, given the alternatives.
Bush will receive my vote in November, assuming nothing major occurs between now and then. What the GOP won't be getting is my money or time. I think that's the serious risk regarding a demoralization of the base; a small percent will stay home but a much larger percent will not participate in activism. (The same activism which is credited with the 2002 successes.)