[hchutch]

I think some of his reaching to the middle is due to the stay-at-homes referred to by Rove - 4 million.

They do not think conservatives are reliable, and in politics, the LEAST reliable supporters are the ones Bush will be LEAST likely to stick his neck out for.

And it only gets worse when he is attacked for pandering whern it may be an honest disagreement with his base (say, on immigration reform).

[NittanyLion]

I think some of his reaching to the middle is due to the stay-at-homes referred to by Rove - 4 million...And it only gets worse when he is attacked for pandering whern it may be an honest disagreement with his base (say, on immigration reform).

These two appear to be mutually exclusive theories. Either he's honestly a moderate or he's reaching to the middle due to supposed stay-at-homes.

Either he's an honest guy who does what he thinks is right, or he's a calculating politician who is moving to the middle to pick up votes. Can't have it both ways...

They do not think conservatives are reliable, and in politics, the LEAST reliable supporters are the ones Bush will be LEAST likely to stick his neck out for.

I suppose we're back to the chicken and the egg. Are conservatives his least reliable supporters because he isn't sticking his neck out for them, or is he not sticking his neck out because they're unreliable?

I guess we'll each have to make our own calculation on that question.

[George W. Bush]

I think some of his reaching to the middle is due to the stay-at-homes referred to by Rove - 4 million. They do not think conservatives are reliable, and in politics, the LEAST reliable supporters are the ones Bush will be LEAST likely to stick his neck out for.

Generally, it's said that these millions are the most conservative of the evangelical vote. Rove has made remarks about this back in 2001. So I think your premise is wrong. Rove knows he can't get them because he did even worse with them than Dole did. And the number of conservative Christian evangelicals in this category is likely to grow in '04. You can see it right here at FR if you look around.

You can't get conservative votes if you repudiate conservativism. And, just like Rush and others have said for years, the GOP can never out-pander the Dims. They'll just raise the ante.