The FOMC will raise the FF rate by 25 bp at the June or the August meeting, conceivably even at the May meeting. Just look at the FF and ED futures, they're telling you to w/in 30-45 days when the first rate rise will occur, and these mkts almost never get it wrong in the short term (longer term is another story). Fade me, go ahead -- as stated, I can use the money. A short-rate CUT? Not a chance in h*ll, barring an economic collapse in 90 days' time or so -- you quote your own odds on that prospect, boyo.
Second phase: it's unlikely that FOMC will raise at all after the first hike, certainly no more than 25 bp again before the election, BUT, after the election, almost surely at the December meeting, we'll see 25 at least (possibly 50 bp, **IF** the stock mkt isn't too vulnerable, which it likely won't be after the reelection of a sitting president).
In 2005, ceteris paribus, another 50-125 bp rise, which number will be conditioned by the delta of world NP relative to GDP. The US can survive a trade deficit (properly called a ''current account'' deficit, btw) more or less forever, or for at least as long as other nations are willing to exchange hard goods for paper (which of course was the case from roughly 1995-6 through the 1st quarter of 2000), but it cannot stand a capital account deficit, which we now have, partly at least due to artificially low interest rates, for long.
Greenbean is, at best, a mediocre man to have at the helm of the Fed at this point (where's Volcker when you need him, eh?), but he certainly realises that -- ALL other considerations aside, especially after the election -- the US must continue to attract the flow of funds.
As regards my ''point of view''...pally, I'm a mark-to-market trader -- that's MY point of view. Theory is fine, and good luck to you with it. Equity is better, and a steady increase in equity is better still.
At the risk of sounding shamelessly commercial, you probably would enjoy my newest book; these topics we're discussing are the underlying basis for the second chapter. Don't worry, I'm not holding my breath, heh heh heh. Make no mistake, I do love academics and theorists -- they're SO much fun to trade against.